KPHX / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

46%

28%

16%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.4¢Risks 25.45u

ICONNO 74.6¢Risks 74.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.55u · ICON −74.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	13.8%	—	8.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	29.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	6.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	27.5%	—	20.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	38.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	41.6%	—	28.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	52.6%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	0.0%	9.3%	9.9%	32.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	34.5%	—	—
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	41.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	46%	89.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	88.8°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	86.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	84.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	84.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	4%	72.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261027-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Phoenix · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗