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KPHX / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
46%
HRES
46%
EPS
28%
WN2
16%
ICON
4%
Consensus
15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 25.4¢Risks 25.45u
VS
ICONNO 74.6¢Risks 74.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.55u · ICON −74.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:33+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T15:32:55+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:00AIFS Single: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:00AIFS Single: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00AIFS Single: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.5% · 2026-10-20T15:32:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.5% · 2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.5% · 2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.5% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.5% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.8% · 2026-10-20T15:32:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.8% · 2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:33+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T15:32:55+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:33+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-20T15:32:55+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 14:4610-20 18:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:33+00:0039.0%28.0%18.9%45.7%4.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:0039.0%28.0%18.9%45.7%4.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:0039.0%28.0%18.9%45.7%4.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0039.0%28.0%18.9%45.7%4.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:0039.0%28.0%18.8%45.7%4.4%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:0039.0%28.0%18.8%45.7%4.4%
2026-10-20T15:32:55+00:0039.0%28.5%18.8%45.7%4.4%
2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:0039.0%28.5%18.8%45.7%4.4%
2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:0046.5%28.5%16.3%45.7%4.4%
2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:0046.5%28.5%16.3%45.7%4.4%
2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:0046.5%28.5%16.3%45.7%4.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single46%89.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES46%88.8°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble28%86.6°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 216%84.5°F5.1°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
National Blend6%84.0°F3.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON4%72.4°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261027-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Phoenix · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗