KPHX / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 92°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

33%

17%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 18.3¢Risks 18.30u

ICONNO 81.7¢Risks 81.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +81.70u · ICON −81.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	8.3%	—	4.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	19.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	3.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	18.1%	—	12.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	26.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	29.5%	—	18.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	39.5%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	0.0%	4.8%	5.2%	21.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	22.9%	—	—
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	28.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	34%	88.8°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	89.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	86.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	84.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	3%	72.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	84.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 92°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261027-TMAX-GE92
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix runs hot-for-here: 92°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗