KPIT / Tue Sep 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Sep 08 · 02:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

88%

68%

54%

46%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 70.2¢Risks 70.25u

ICONNO 29.8¢Risks 29.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +29.75u · ICON −29.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-24T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-08-24T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	7.9%	—	—	45.9%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	2.2%	—	—	53.0%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	25.7%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	1.9%	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	3.2%	9.6%	—	52.1%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	50.7%	49.3%	—	59.4%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	25.6%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	62.7%	17.9%	—	62.0%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	52.3%	—	—	52.3%
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	82.6%	30.1%	32.3%	—	53.2%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	20.7%	36.4%	—	—	54.9%
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	67.8%	41.7%	45.0%	—	46.7%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	54.3%	22.6%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	76.6%	44.8%	53.5%	—	57.8%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	80.4%	57.1%	—	—	57.1%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	83.4%	60.9%	40.9%	—	65.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	80.4%	61.2%	—	—	65.7%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	76.0%	47.1%	55.8%	—	67.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	70.9%	51.0%	—	—	71.8%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	66.0%	65.1%	38.8%	—	68.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	70.2%	60.5%	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	73.6%	72.7%	46.7%	—	79.4%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	79.4%	51.1%	0.0%	—	79.4%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	74.9%	54.6%	46.5%	35.2%	74.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	80.9%	59.5%	51.2%	—	77.5%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	70.2%	64.6%	42.6%	46.3%	84.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	69.8%	55.1%	39.8%	—	85.7%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	64.4%	76.0%	42.0%	54.0%	89.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	72.4%	70.0%	50.0%	—	88.9%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	81.8%	45.7%	54.3%	55.8%	89.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	71.5%	42.5%	54.5%	—	87.2%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	59.4%	45.3%	50.0%	68.3%	83.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	73.3%	48.4%	58.2%	—	85.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	67%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	58%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	58%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	46%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260908-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 82°F · Tue Sep 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗