KPIT / Tue Sep 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Sep 08 · 02:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

88%

68%

54%

46%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 70.2¢Risks 70.25u

ICONNO 29.8¢Risks 29.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +29.75u · ICON −29.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T02:53:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:03:22+00:00	85.3%	71.3%	44.1%	95.0%	52.3%
2026-09-07T14:25:56+00:00	85.3%	71.3%	44.1%	95.0%	52.3%
2026-09-07T14:27:38+00:00	85.3%	71.3%	44.1%	95.0%	52.3%
2026-09-07T14:51:44+00:00	85.3%	71.3%	44.1%	95.0%	52.3%
2026-09-07T14:51:47+00:00	85.3%	71.3%	44.1%	95.0%	52.3%
2026-09-07T15:36:54+00:00	85.3%	68.4%	44.1%	95.0%	52.3%
2026-09-07T16:22:02+00:00	85.3%	68.4%	44.1%	95.0%	52.3%
2026-09-07T17:07:08+00:00	85.3%	68.4%	46.5%	95.0%	52.3%
2026-09-07T17:52:13+00:00	85.3%	68.4%	46.5%	95.0%	52.3%
2026-09-07T18:37:18+00:00	85.3%	68.4%	46.5%	95.0%	52.3%
2026-09-07T19:22:22+00:00	85.3%	68.4%	46.5%	95.0%	52.3%
2026-09-07T20:07:30+00:00	89.3%	68.4%	46.5%	95.0%	45.5%
2026-09-07T20:52:35+00:00	89.3%	68.4%	46.5%	95.0%	45.5%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	89.3%	68.4%	46.5%	95.0%	45.5%
2026-09-07T22:22:44+00:00	89.3%	68.4%	46.5%	95.0%	45.5%
2026-09-07T23:07:49+00:00	89.3%	68.4%	53.5%	95.0%	45.5%
2026-09-07T23:52:54+00:00	89.3%	68.4%	53.5%	95.0%	45.5%
2026-09-08T00:37:59+00:00	89.3%	68.4%	53.5%	95.0%	45.5%
2026-09-08T01:23:04+00:00	87.9%	68.4%	53.5%	95.0%	45.5%
2026-09-08T02:08:09+00:00	87.9%	68.4%	53.5%	95.0%	45.5%
2026-09-08T02:53:14+00:00	87.9%	68.4%	53.5%	95.0%	45.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	67%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	58%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	58%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	46%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260908-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 82°F · Tue Sep 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗