KPIT / Tue Sep 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Sep 08 · 06:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

49%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 30.4¢Risks 30.40u

EPSNO 69.6¢Risks 69.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +69.60u · EPS −69.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-08-24T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	1.6%	—	—	20.1%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	24.7%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	7.1%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	0.2%	—	—	8.0%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	0.3%	1.4%	—	20.4%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	18.4%	17.5%	—	24.9%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	5.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	26.4%	3.0%	—	25.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	17.9%	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	47.6%	6.4%	7.2%	—	17.9%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	3.3%	8.5%	—	—	18.4%
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	27.9%	10.4%	12.0%	—	12.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	16.7%	3.4%	—	—	14.2%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	35.4%	10.9%	15.6%	—	18.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	39.3%	17.2%	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	42.7%	19.0%	8.3%	—	22.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	37.0%	18.4%	—	—	21.7%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	30.4%	9.8%	14.2%	—	22.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	24.1%	11.0%	—	—	24.9%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	19.0%	18.3%	5.8%	—	21.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	21.3%	14.4%	—	—	19.8%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	23.0%	22.1%	7.3%	—	29.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	27.6%	8.3%	0.0%	—	27.6%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	21.5%	9.0%	6.1%	3.3%	21.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	26.3%	10.2%	7.0%	—	22.5%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	15.1%	11.8%	4.0%	4.9%	29.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	13.5%	6.8%	3.0%	—	29.1%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	9.5%	16.5%	3.0%	5.7%	34.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	12.4%	11.1%	4.0%	—	30.0%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	18.2%	2.7%	4.4%	4.7%	28.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	9.2%	1.8%	3.7%	—	22.4%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	4.1%	1.8%	2.4%	6.6%	16.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.3%	1.7%	3.1%	—	16.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	56%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	19%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	10%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	6%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	4%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260908-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 07 · 14:25 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Tue Sep 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗