KPIT / Tue Sep 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Sep 08 · 06:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

49%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 30.4¢Risks 30.40u

EPSNO 69.6¢Risks 69.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +69.60u · EPS −69.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:25:56+00:00	44.3%	5.5%	5.2%	57.0%	8.8%
2026-09-07T14:27:38+00:00	44.3%	5.5%	5.2%	57.0%	8.8%
2026-09-07T14:51:44+00:00	44.3%	5.5%	5.2%	57.0%	8.8%
2026-09-07T14:51:47+00:00	44.3%	5.5%	5.2%	57.0%	8.8%
2026-09-07T15:36:54+00:00	44.3%	4.5%	5.2%	57.0%	8.8%
2026-09-07T16:22:02+00:00	44.3%	4.5%	5.2%	57.0%	8.8%
2026-09-07T17:07:08+00:00	44.3%	4.5%	5.8%	57.0%	8.8%
2026-09-07T17:52:13+00:00	44.3%	4.5%	5.8%	57.0%	8.8%
2026-09-07T18:37:18+00:00	44.3%	4.5%	5.8%	57.0%	8.8%
2026-09-07T19:22:22+00:00	44.3%	4.5%	5.8%	57.0%	8.8%
2026-09-07T20:07:30+00:00	51.9%	4.5%	5.8%	57.0%	6.4%
2026-09-07T20:52:35+00:00	51.9%	4.5%	5.8%	57.0%	6.4%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	51.9%	4.5%	5.8%	57.0%	6.4%
2026-09-07T22:22:44+00:00	51.9%	4.5%	5.8%	57.0%	6.4%
2026-09-07T23:07:49+00:00	51.9%	4.5%	8.2%	57.0%	6.4%
2026-09-07T23:52:54+00:00	51.9%	4.5%	8.2%	57.0%	6.4%
2026-09-08T00:37:59+00:00	51.9%	4.5%	8.2%	57.0%	6.4%
2026-09-08T01:23:04+00:00	49.0%	4.5%	8.2%	57.0%	6.4%
2026-09-08T02:08:09+00:00	49.0%	4.5%	8.2%	57.0%	6.4%
2026-09-08T02:53:14+00:00	49.0%	4.5%	8.2%	57.0%	6.4%
2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:00	49.0%	4.5%	8.2%	56.3%	6.4%
2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:00	49.0%	4.5%	8.2%	56.3%	6.4%
2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:00	49.0%	4.5%	12.4%	56.3%	6.4%
2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:00	49.0%	4.5%	12.4%	56.3%	6.4%
2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00	49.0%	4.5%	12.4%	56.3%	6.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	56%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	19%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	10%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	6%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	4%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260908-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 07 · 14:25 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Tue Sep 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗