KPIT / Wed Sep 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Sep 09 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

90%

89%

64%

61%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 76.8¢Risks 76.75u

ICONNO 23.2¢Risks 23.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.25u · ICON −23.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	0.4%	—	—	59.7%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	89.5%	—	—	66.4%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	94.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	7.9%	1.7%	—	75.9%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	18.4%	47.8%	51.5%	—	60.1%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	13.5%	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	12.5%	73.6%	65.6%	—	59.1%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	75.3%	—	—	54.7%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	91.3%	82.1%	65.5%	—	80.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	18.9%	73.7%	—	—	78.2%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	66.2%	89.5%	85.7%	68.5%	—	81.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	77.4%	88.5%	—	—	82.7%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	80.4%	83.3%	58.7%	—	83.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	71.3%	81.6%	—	—	82.2%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	74.9%	80.4%	51.8%	—	83.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	82.9%	75.4%	—	—	78.3%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	66.1%	84.7%	83.5%	50.0%	—	83.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	84.2%	82.3%	—	—	82.3%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	79.5%	71.5%	45.9%	—	78.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	79.5%	82.4%	—	—	80.2%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	57.6%	78.7%	41.3%	—	84.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	68.5%	82.5%	0.0%	—	86.5%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	70.0%	86.0%	40.8%	34.1%	86.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	76.6%	80.9%	58.4%	—	84.0%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	84.1%	81.8%	50.0%	41.3%	87.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	80.0%	84.2%	53.9%	—	85.7%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	80.0%	85.1%	55.4%	60.6%	84.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	88.9%	75.8%	61.0%	—	88.9%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	81.8%	51.4%	60.1%	58.6%	86.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	75.2%	85.6%	59.0%	—	79.8%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	68.3%	89.0%	60.9%	78.6%	79.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	85.9%	94.2%	77.2%	—	86.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	89.5°F	4.2°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	87.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	88.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	84.3°F	2.2°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending
ICON	61%	84.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	83.9°F	2.2°F	2026-09-08 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-08 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260909-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Wed Sep 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗