KPIT / Wed Sep 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Sep 09 · 06:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

80%

76%

39%

29%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.2¢Risks 56.25u

EPSNO 43.8¢Risks 43.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.75u · EPS −43.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	23.3%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	25.4%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	82.0%	—	—	53.4%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	3.9%	0.7%	—	63.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	10.3%	33.7%	37.1%	—	45.6%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	6.9%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	6.3%	59.8%	50.8%	—	43.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	61.5%	—	—	39.2%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	83.2%	69.8%	50.0%	—	67.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	9.9%	58.9%	—	—	64.4%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	79.9%	74.2%	52.5%	—	68.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	62.6%	78.0%	—	—	69.7%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	66.2%	70.1%	41.3%	—	70.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	54.5%	67.4%	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	58.2%	65.3%	33.9%	—	69.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	68.2%	58.5%	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	70.4%	68.7%	31.3%	—	68.7%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	69.2%	66.5%	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	51.0%	62.2%	52.1%	26.8%	—	61.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	61.5%	65.5%	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	36.1%	59.7%	22.1%	—	67.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	46.6%	64.3%	0.0%	—	70.4%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	47.7%	69.0%	20.7%	16.0%	69.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	54.8%	60.7%	34.7%	—	65.3%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	64.6%	61.1%	26.6%	19.9%	70.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	57.7%	63.9%	29.1%	—	66.3%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	56.7%	64.4%	29.5%	34.3%	63.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	70.0%	50.0%	33.8%	—	70.0%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	57.2%	24.5%	31.8%	30.5%	64.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	36.6%	47.0%	61.9%	29.8%	—	53.0%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	37.6%	66.8%	30.3%	50.0%	51.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	59.8%	77.2%	46.7%	—	61.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	89.5°F	4.2°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	88.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	88.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	86.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-09 02:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
ICON	39%	84.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	84.3°F	2.2°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260909-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 86°F · Wed Sep 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗