KPIT / Thu Sep 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 09 · 14:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

94%

87%

54%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 77.1¢Risks 77.10u

HRESNO 22.9¢Risks 22.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +22.90u · HRES −22.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	85.2%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	73.7%	—	—	—	—	87.1%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	—	84.7%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	86.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	10.1%	—	—	94.7%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	86.8%	—	—	94.8%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	83.6%	—	—	93.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	99.7%	—	—	93.6%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	93.7%	80.6%	—	89.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	94.9%	68.3%	82.0%	—	93.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	82.1%	—	—	65.3%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	97.1%	85.8%	69.7%	—	89.7%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	58.5%	—	—	65.9%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	91.0%	90.0%	83.7%	—	91.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	82.7%	83.2%	—	—	84.2%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	77.5%	88.4%	82.2%	63.9%	—	82.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	87.7%	68.2%	—	—	79.9%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	82.2%	94.8%	71.6%	50.9%	—	80.4%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	91.9%	70.6%	—	—	83.9%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	89.8%	86.1%	57.3%	—	78.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	94.4%	67.4%	—	—	80.4%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	56.8%	85.3%	87.4%	47.1%	—	84.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	87.1%	43.0%	—	—	83.0%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	51.0%	88.7%	73.2%	50.0%	81.7%	74.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	92.8%	54.2%	—	—	75.5%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	92.7%	46.7%	24.7%	85.1%	66.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	93.3%	41.0%	34.6%	—	72.4%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	93.2%	41.9%	86.6%	92.4%	71.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	95.5%	38.1%	34.7%	—	73.7%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	95.7%	75.4%	90.5%	63.4%	66.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	97.2%	48.7%	33.7%	—	75.2%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	97.2%	88.0%	98.0%	81.8%	95.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	87.5%	97.7%	95.0%	97.5%	—	96.3%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	98.2%	99.7%	82.8%	98.7%	98.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	97.8%	98.6%	98.3%	—	99.0%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	89.0%	100.0%	99.7%	85.8%	99.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	94.2%	100.0%	98.3%	—	98.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	83.7°F	2.3°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	84.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	80.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending
ICON	87%	78.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
National Blend	66%	75.9°F	3.3°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-09 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	74.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260910-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 09 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Thu Sep 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗