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KPIT / Thu Sep 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 09 · 14:23 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
94%
ICON
87%
HRES
54%
Consensus
98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 77.1¢Risks 77.10u
VS
HRESNO 22.9¢Risks 22.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +22.90u · HRES −22.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 79.9% · 2026-09-09T03:06:37+00:00AIFS Single: 79.9% · 2026-09-09T03:51:46+00:00AIFS Single: 79.9% · 2026-09-09T04:36:50+00:00AIFS Single: 79.9% · 2026-09-09T05:21:55+00:00AIFS Single: 79.9% · 2026-09-09T06:07:01+00:00AIFS Single: 79.9% · 2026-09-09T06:52:06+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-09-09T07:37:14+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-09-09T08:22:29+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-09-09T09:07:33+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-09-09T09:52:37+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-09-09T10:37:41+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-09-09T11:22:46+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-09-09T12:07:53+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-09-09T12:52:58+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-09-09T13:38:03+00:00AIFS Single: 93.8% · 2026-09-09T14:23:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-09T03:06:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-09T03:51:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-09T04:36:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-09T05:21:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-09T06:07:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-09T06:52:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-09T07:37:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-09T08:22:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-09T09:07:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-09T09:52:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-09T10:37:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-09T11:22:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-09T12:07:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-09T12:52:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-09T13:38:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-09T14:23:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.5% · 2026-09-09T03:06:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.5% · 2026-09-09T03:51:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.5% · 2026-09-09T04:36:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-09-09T05:21:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-09-09T06:07:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-09-09T06:52:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-09-09T07:37:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-09-09T08:22:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-09-09T09:07:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-09-09T09:52:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-09-09T10:37:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.8% · 2026-09-09T11:22:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.8% · 2026-09-09T12:07:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.8% · 2026-09-09T12:52:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.8% · 2026-09-09T13:38:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.8% · 2026-09-09T14:23:18+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-09-09T03:06:37+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-09-09T03:51:46+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-09-09T04:36:50+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-09-09T05:21:55+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-09-09T06:07:01+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-09-09T06:52:06+00:00IFS HRES: 54.2% · 2026-09-09T07:37:14+00:00IFS HRES: 54.2% · 2026-09-09T08:22:29+00:00IFS HRES: 54.2% · 2026-09-09T09:07:33+00:00IFS HRES: 54.2% · 2026-09-09T09:52:37+00:00IFS HRES: 54.2% · 2026-09-09T10:37:41+00:00IFS HRES: 54.2% · 2026-09-09T11:22:46+00:00IFS HRES: 54.2% · 2026-09-09T12:07:53+00:00IFS HRES: 54.2% · 2026-09-09T12:52:58+00:00IFS HRES: 54.2% · 2026-09-09T13:38:03+00:00IFS HRES: 54.2% · 2026-09-09T14:23:18+00:00ICON: 89.9% · 2026-09-09T03:06:37+00:00ICON: 89.9% · 2026-09-09T03:51:46+00:00ICON: 89.9% · 2026-09-09T04:36:50+00:00ICON: 89.9% · 2026-09-09T05:21:55+00:00ICON: 89.9% · 2026-09-09T06:07:01+00:00ICON: 89.9% · 2026-09-09T06:52:06+00:00ICON: 87.0% · 2026-09-09T07:37:14+00:00ICON: 87.0% · 2026-09-09T08:22:29+00:00ICON: 87.0% · 2026-09-09T09:07:33+00:00ICON: 87.0% · 2026-09-09T09:52:37+00:00ICON: 87.0% · 2026-09-09T10:37:41+00:00ICON: 87.0% · 2026-09-09T11:22:46+00:00ICON: 87.0% · 2026-09-09T12:07:53+00:00ICON: 87.0% · 2026-09-09T12:52:58+00:00ICON: 87.0% · 2026-09-09T13:38:03+00:00ICON: 87.0% · 2026-09-09T14:23:18+00:0009-09 03:0609-09 09:0709-09 14:23
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-09T14:23:18+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-09T03:06:37+00:0079.9%100.0%99.5%49.0%89.9%
2026-09-09T03:51:46+00:0079.9%100.0%99.5%49.0%89.9%
2026-09-09T04:36:50+00:0079.9%100.0%99.5%49.0%89.9%
2026-09-09T05:21:55+00:0079.9%100.0%99.7%49.0%89.9%
2026-09-09T06:07:01+00:0079.9%100.0%99.7%49.0%89.9%
2026-09-09T06:52:06+00:0079.9%100.0%99.7%49.0%89.9%
2026-09-09T07:37:14+00:0091.7%100.0%99.7%54.2%87.0%
2026-09-09T08:22:29+00:0091.7%100.0%99.7%54.2%87.0%
2026-09-09T09:07:33+00:0091.7%100.0%99.7%54.2%87.0%
2026-09-09T09:52:37+00:0091.7%100.0%99.7%54.2%87.0%
2026-09-09T10:37:41+00:0091.7%100.0%99.7%54.2%87.0%
2026-09-09T11:22:46+00:0091.7%100.0%99.8%54.2%87.0%
2026-09-09T12:07:53+00:0091.7%100.0%99.8%54.2%87.0%
2026-09-09T12:52:58+00:0091.7%100.0%99.8%54.2%87.0%
2026-09-09T13:38:03+00:0093.7%100.0%99.8%54.2%87.0%
2026-09-09T14:23:18+00:0093.8%100.0%99.8%54.2%87.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%83.7°F2.3°F2026-09-08 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2>99%84.5°F3.4°F2026-09-09 00:00Pending
AIFS Single94%80.9°F4.2°F2026-09-09 06:00Pending
ICON87%78.5°F3.5°F2026-09-09 00:00Pending
National Blend66%75.9°F3.3°F2026-09-09 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%75.0°F3.1°F2026-09-09 02:00Pending
IFS HRES54%74.9°F3.8°F2026-09-09 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260910-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 09 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Thu Sep 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗