KPIT / Thu Sep 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Sep 10 · 06:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

92%

91%

66%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 82.9¢Risks 82.90u

ICONNO 17.1¢Risks 17.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +17.10u · ICON −17.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	—	—	—	78.1%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	—	—	—	80.4%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	77.0%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	79.1%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	5.7%	—	—	90.5%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	82.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	78.9%	—	—	90.4%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	84.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	74.3%	—	—	88.3%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	99.2%	—	—	88.2%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	—	88.1%	69.5%	—	81.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	89.7%	54.4%	70.9%	—	86.9%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	70.7%	—	—	50.7%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	93.5%	75.5%	55.3%	—	81.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	43.0%	—	—	50.8%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	82.6%	81.1%	71.9%	—	84.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	70.3%	71.0%	—	—	72.4%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	78.1%	69.2%	47.5%	—	69.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	76.7%	51.7%	—	—	65.8%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	88.2%	55.2%	33.8%	—	66.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	82.8%	53.6%	—	—	70.6%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	79.1%	73.4%	39.1%	—	62.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	86.8%	49.0%	—	—	64.8%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	71.3%	74.5%	28.7%	—	70.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	73.5%	24.9%	—	—	67.4%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	75.7%	54.1%	30.3%	65.1%	55.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	82.4%	33.5%	—	—	56.3%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	81.7%	26.4%	10.9%	68.9%	45.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	82.5%	21.4%	16.8%	—	51.1%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	81.7%	21.5%	70.0%	80.1%	48.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	86.1%	18.3%	16.0%	—	51.2%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	86.3%	52.5%	75.4%	38.9%	42.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	89.7%	24.8%	14.3%	—	51.3%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	89.3%	69.3%	91.6%	59.3%	84.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	90.2%	82.7%	89.6%	—	86.1%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	64.2%	91.6%	97.9%	58.6%	93.2%	93.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	78.7%	89.5%	92.5%	91.4%	—	94.0%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	82.9%	66.8%	99.9%	97.1%	60.9%	95.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	77.2%	99.8%	90.1%	—	90.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	82.5°F	2.1°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	85.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	81.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	82.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	66%	77.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	77.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-10 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260910-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Thu Sep 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗