KPIT / Thu Sep 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Sep 10 · 06:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

21%

17%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 23.9¢Risks 23.85u

ICONNO 76.1¢Risks 76.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +76.15u · ICON −76.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T06:10:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:25:56+00:00	4.4%	24.0%	31.1%	3.2%	4.8%
2026-09-07T14:27:38+00:00	4.4%	24.0%	31.1%	3.2%	4.8%
2026-09-07T14:51:44+00:00	4.4%	24.0%	31.1%	3.2%	4.8%
2026-09-07T14:51:47+00:00	4.4%	24.0%	31.1%	3.2%	4.8%
2026-09-07T15:36:54+00:00	4.4%	20.0%	31.1%	3.2%	4.8%
2026-09-07T16:22:02+00:00	4.4%	20.0%	31.1%	3.2%	4.8%
2026-09-07T17:07:08+00:00	4.4%	20.0%	37.1%	3.2%	4.8%
2026-09-07T17:52:13+00:00	4.4%	20.0%	37.1%	3.2%	4.8%
2026-09-07T18:37:18+00:00	4.4%	20.0%	37.1%	3.2%	4.8%
2026-09-07T19:22:22+00:00	4.4%	20.0%	37.1%	3.2%	4.8%
2026-09-07T20:07:30+00:00	7.7%	20.0%	37.1%	0.6%	6.0%
2026-09-07T20:52:35+00:00	7.7%	20.0%	37.1%	0.6%	6.0%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	7.7%	20.0%	37.1%	0.6%	6.0%
2026-09-07T22:22:44+00:00	7.7%	20.0%	37.1%	0.6%	6.0%
2026-09-07T23:07:49+00:00	7.7%	20.0%	27.3%	0.6%	6.0%
2026-09-07T23:52:54+00:00	7.7%	20.0%	27.3%	0.6%	6.0%
2026-09-08T00:37:59+00:00	7.7%	20.0%	27.3%	0.6%	6.0%
2026-09-08T01:23:04+00:00	4.4%	20.0%	27.3%	0.6%	6.0%
2026-09-08T02:08:09+00:00	4.4%	20.0%	27.3%	0.6%	6.0%
2026-09-08T02:53:14+00:00	4.4%	20.0%	27.3%	0.6%	6.0%
2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:00	4.4%	20.0%	27.3%	1.3%	6.0%
2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:00	4.4%	20.0%	27.3%	1.3%	6.0%
2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:00	4.4%	20.0%	23.8%	1.3%	6.0%
2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:00	4.4%	20.0%	23.8%	1.3%	6.0%
2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00	4.4%	20.0%	23.8%	1.3%	6.0%
2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00	3.3%	20.0%	23.8%	0.6%	3.6%
2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:00	3.3%	20.0%	23.8%	0.6%	3.6%
2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:00	3.3%	20.0%	23.8%	0.6%	3.6%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	3.3%	20.0%	23.8%	0.6%	3.6%
2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:00	3.3%	22.8%	23.8%	0.6%	3.6%
2026-09-08T11:09:15+00:00	3.3%	22.8%	19.5%	0.6%	3.6%
2026-09-08T11:54:21+00:00	3.3%	22.8%	19.5%	0.6%	3.6%
2026-09-08T12:39:25+00:00	3.3%	22.8%	19.5%	0.6%	3.6%
2026-09-08T13:24:29+00:00	8.1%	22.8%	19.5%	0.6%	3.6%
2026-09-08T14:09:34+00:00	8.1%	22.8%	19.5%	0.6%	3.7%
2026-09-08T14:54:39+00:00	8.1%	21.9%	19.5%	0.6%	3.7%
2026-09-08T15:39:46+00:00	8.1%	21.9%	19.5%	0.6%	3.7%
2026-09-08T15:49:07+00:00	8.1%	21.9%	19.5%	0.6%	3.7%
2026-09-08T16:00:06+00:00	8.1%	21.9%	19.5%	0.6%	3.7%
2026-09-08T16:45:14+00:00	8.1%	21.9%	19.5%	0.6%	3.7%
2026-09-08T17:06:41+00:00	8.1%	21.9%	27.4%	0.6%	3.7%
2026-09-08T17:20:26+00:00	8.1%	21.9%	27.4%	0.6%	3.7%
2026-09-08T18:05:34+00:00	8.1%	21.9%	27.4%	0.6%	3.7%
2026-09-08T18:50:38+00:00	8.1%	21.9%	27.4%	0.6%	3.7%
2026-09-08T19:35:43+00:00	6.0%	21.9%	27.4%	0.4%	3.2%
2026-09-08T20:20:49+00:00	6.0%	21.9%	27.4%	0.4%	3.2%
2026-09-08T21:05:54+00:00	6.0%	21.9%	27.4%	0.4%	3.2%
2026-09-08T21:50:58+00:00	6.0%	21.9%	27.4%	0.4%	3.2%
2026-09-08T22:36:03+00:00	6.0%	21.9%	27.4%	0.4%	3.2%
2026-09-08T23:21:09+00:00	6.0%	21.9%	28.3%	0.4%	3.2%
2026-09-09T00:06:14+00:00	6.0%	21.9%	28.3%	0.4%	3.2%
2026-09-09T00:51:21+00:00	6.0%	21.9%	28.3%	0.4%	3.2%
2026-09-09T01:36:26+00:00	4.3%	21.9%	28.3%	0.4%	3.2%
2026-09-09T02:21:31+00:00	4.3%	21.9%	28.3%	0.4%	3.2%
2026-09-09T15:08:24+00:00	13.5%	12.9%	38.4%	0.3%	2.4%
2026-09-09T15:53:33+00:00	13.5%	12.9%	38.4%	0.3%	2.4%
2026-09-09T16:38:38+00:00	13.5%	12.9%	38.4%	0.3%	2.8%
2026-09-09T17:23:44+00:00	13.5%	12.9%	35.0%	0.3%	2.8%
2026-09-09T18:08:51+00:00	13.5%	12.9%	35.0%	0.3%	2.8%
2026-09-09T18:53:56+00:00	13.5%	12.9%	35.0%	0.3%	2.8%
2026-09-09T19:39:02+00:00	13.0%	12.9%	35.0%	17.0%	2.8%
2026-09-09T20:24:12+00:00	13.0%	12.9%	35.0%	17.0%	2.8%
2026-09-09T21:09:17+00:00	13.0%	12.9%	35.0%	17.0%	2.8%
2026-09-09T21:54:22+00:00	13.0%	12.9%	35.0%	17.0%	2.8%
2026-09-09T22:39:30+00:00	13.0%	12.9%	35.0%	17.0%	2.8%
2026-09-09T23:24:35+00:00	13.0%	12.9%	38.4%	17.0%	2.8%
2026-09-10T00:09:40+00:00	13.0%	12.9%	38.4%	17.0%	2.8%
2026-09-10T00:54:47+00:00	13.0%	12.9%	38.4%	17.0%	2.8%
2026-09-10T01:39:53+00:00	21.4%	12.9%	38.4%	17.0%	2.8%
2026-09-10T02:25:00+00:00	21.4%	7.9%	38.4%	17.0%	2.8%
2026-09-10T03:10:08+00:00	21.4%	7.9%	38.4%	17.0%	2.8%
2026-09-10T03:55:18+00:00	21.4%	7.9%	38.4%	17.0%	2.8%
2026-09-10T04:40:23+00:00	21.4%	7.9%	38.4%	17.0%	1.2%
2026-09-10T05:25:28+00:00	21.4%	7.9%	46.5%	17.0%	1.2%
2026-09-10T06:10:35+00:00	21.4%	7.9%	46.5%	17.0%	1.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	46%	85.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	82.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	81.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	82.5°F	2.1°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	78.0°F	4.6°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	1%	77.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	77.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-10 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260910-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 07 · 14:25 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Thu Sep 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗