KPIT / Thu Sep 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Sep 10 · 06:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

21%

17%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 23.9¢Risks 23.85u

ICONNO 76.1¢Risks 76.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +76.15u · ICON −76.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	29.4%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	—	—	—	30.3%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	47.6%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	27.0%	—	—	45.6%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	20.7%	—	—	39.1%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	81.5%	—	—	36.7%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	34.3%	14.1%	—	24.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	35.0%	6.2%	13.6%	—	29.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	12.7%	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	41.7%	15.1%	5.6%	—	20.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	2.6%	—	—	4.1%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	19.5%	17.9%	11.1%	—	21.2%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	9.5%	9.9%	—	—	10.6%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	13.4%	8.3%	2.6%	—	8.3%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	11.5%	3.0%	—	—	6.4%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	21.4%	3.2%	0.8%	—	5.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	14.0%	2.6%	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	10.2%	7.3%	0.9%	—	3.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	15.4%	1.5%	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	5.1%	6.2%	0.3%	—	4.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.1%	0.2%	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	5.2%	1.3%	0.2%	2.6%	1.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	7.2%	0.2%	—	—	1.3%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.9%	0.1%	0.0%	2.4%	0.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.4%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.6%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.2%	0.0%	1.8%	3.8%	0.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.3%	0.3%	1.7%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.9%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.7%	0.6%	5.0%	0.3%	2.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.2%	1.4%	3.0%	—	2.0%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.9%	10.8%	0.1%	3.7%	4.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.5%	2.4%	2.0%	—	3.2%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	31.7%	4.8%	0.1%	3.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	19.2%	0.7%	—	0.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	46%	85.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	82.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	81.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	82.5°F	2.1°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	78.0°F	4.6°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	1%	77.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	77.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-10 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260910-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 07 · 14:25 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Thu Sep 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗