KPIT / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Sep 10 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

88%

74%

73%

41%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.1¢Risks 68.10u

ICONNO 31.9¢Risks 31.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.90u · ICON −31.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	—	—	—	60.3%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	—	—	—	72.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	—	—	—	71.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	82.8%	—	—	44.4%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	27.8%	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	37.4%	18.0%	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	1.4%	7.4%	16.2%	—	63.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	23.7%	19.9%	16.5%	—	48.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	17.9%	39.4%	35.1%	—	40.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	60.3%	67.0%	43.6%	—	46.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.9%	7.0%	62.1%	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	17.3%	25.1%	50.0%	—	55.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	11.1%	28.1%	—	—	60.2%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	37.9%	76.6%	28.4%	—	50.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	31.8%	78.5%	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	32.2%	72.6%	24.4%	—	44.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	58.5%	73.2%	—	—	39.7%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	57.7%	77.5%	35.7%	—	42.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	39.1%	40.1%	—	—	45.0%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	47.9%	40.8%	32.1%	—	44.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	30.7%	72.1%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	35.1%	72.7%	38.2%	—	46.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	48.9%	83.9%	0.0%	—	44.4%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	37.4%	94.9%	69.0%	44.2%	66.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	63.0%	74.7%	59.5%	—	69.6%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	58.7%	92.0%	77.3%	64.6%	69.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	67.5%	94.4%	77.2%	—	75.2%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	64.4%	93.5%	77.0%	47.3%	87.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	71.2%	95.7%	68.8%	—	88.2%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	84.6%	80.9%	96.8%	76.6%	81.8%	92.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	80.8%	98.0%	83.8%	—	92.5%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	80.8%	98.4%	82.9%	71.0%	91.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	85.9%	98.6%	87.7%	—	92.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	82.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	81.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	77.8°F	2.0°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	78.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
National Blend	66%	77.9°F	3.3°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-10 02:00	Pending
ICON	41%	75.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260911-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗