KPIT / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Sep 10 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

88%

74%

73%

41%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.1¢Risks 68.10u

ICONNO 31.9¢Risks 31.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.90u · ICON −31.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:00	76.2%	55.7%	79.5%	69.5%	43.1%
2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:00	76.2%	55.7%	79.5%	69.5%	43.1%
2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:00	76.2%	55.7%	74.8%	69.5%	43.1%
2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:00	76.2%	55.7%	74.8%	69.5%	43.1%
2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00	76.2%	55.7%	74.8%	69.5%	43.1%
2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00	80.7%	55.7%	74.8%	53.5%	61.2%
2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:00	80.7%	55.7%	74.8%	53.5%	61.2%
2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:00	80.7%	55.7%	74.8%	53.5%	61.2%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	80.7%	55.7%	74.8%	53.5%	61.2%
2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:00	80.7%	33.6%	74.8%	53.5%	61.2%
2026-09-08T11:09:15+00:00	80.7%	33.6%	78.7%	53.5%	61.2%
2026-09-08T11:54:21+00:00	80.7%	33.6%	78.7%	53.5%	61.2%
2026-09-08T12:39:25+00:00	80.7%	33.6%	78.7%	53.5%	61.2%
2026-09-08T13:24:29+00:00	78.2%	33.6%	78.7%	53.5%	61.2%
2026-09-08T14:09:34+00:00	78.2%	33.6%	78.7%	53.5%	61.2%
2026-09-08T14:54:39+00:00	78.2%	31.9%	78.7%	53.5%	61.2%
2026-09-08T15:39:46+00:00	78.2%	31.9%	78.7%	53.5%	61.2%
2026-09-08T15:49:08+00:00	78.2%	31.9%	78.7%	53.5%	61.2%
2026-09-08T16:00:06+00:00	78.2%	31.9%	78.7%	53.5%	61.2%
2026-09-08T16:45:14+00:00	78.2%	31.9%	78.7%	53.5%	61.2%
2026-09-08T17:06:41+00:00	78.2%	31.9%	81.7%	53.5%	61.2%
2026-09-08T17:20:26+00:00	78.2%	31.9%	81.7%	53.5%	61.2%
2026-09-08T18:05:34+00:00	78.2%	31.9%	81.7%	53.5%	61.2%
2026-09-08T18:50:38+00:00	78.2%	31.9%	81.7%	53.5%	61.2%
2026-09-08T19:35:43+00:00	81.9%	31.9%	81.7%	74.5%	51.0%
2026-09-08T20:20:49+00:00	81.9%	31.9%	81.7%	74.5%	51.0%
2026-09-08T21:05:54+00:00	81.9%	31.9%	81.7%	74.5%	51.0%
2026-09-08T21:50:58+00:00	81.9%	31.9%	81.7%	74.5%	51.0%
2026-09-08T22:36:03+00:00	81.9%	31.9%	81.7%	74.5%	51.0%
2026-09-08T23:21:09+00:00	81.9%	31.9%	87.5%	74.5%	51.0%
2026-09-09T00:06:14+00:00	81.9%	31.9%	87.5%	74.5%	51.0%
2026-09-09T00:51:21+00:00	81.9%	31.9%	87.5%	74.5%	51.0%
2026-09-09T01:36:26+00:00	82.5%	31.9%	87.5%	74.5%	51.0%
2026-09-09T02:21:31+00:00	82.5%	31.9%	87.5%	74.5%	51.0%
2026-09-09T03:06:37+00:00	82.5%	31.9%	87.5%	74.5%	51.0%
2026-09-09T03:51:46+00:00	82.5%	31.9%	87.5%	74.5%	51.0%
2026-09-09T04:36:50+00:00	82.5%	31.9%	87.5%	74.5%	51.0%
2026-09-09T05:21:55+00:00	82.5%	31.9%	92.7%	74.5%	51.0%
2026-09-09T06:07:01+00:00	82.5%	31.9%	92.7%	74.5%	51.0%
2026-09-09T06:52:06+00:00	82.5%	31.9%	92.7%	74.5%	51.0%
2026-09-09T07:37:14+00:00	81.2%	31.9%	92.7%	63.1%	28.6%
2026-09-09T08:22:29+00:00	81.2%	31.9%	92.7%	63.1%	28.6%
2026-09-09T09:07:33+00:00	81.2%	31.9%	92.7%	63.1%	28.6%
2026-09-09T09:52:37+00:00	81.2%	31.9%	92.7%	63.1%	28.6%
2026-09-09T10:37:41+00:00	81.2%	31.9%	92.7%	63.1%	28.6%
2026-09-09T11:22:46+00:00	81.2%	31.9%	93.2%	63.1%	28.6%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	81.2%	31.9%	93.2%	63.1%	28.6%
2026-09-09T12:52:58+00:00	81.2%	31.9%	93.2%	63.1%	28.6%
2026-09-09T13:38:03+00:00	78.5%	31.9%	93.2%	63.1%	28.6%
2026-09-09T14:23:18+00:00	78.7%	31.9%	93.2%	63.2%	28.5%
2026-09-09T15:08:24+00:00	78.7%	37.6%	93.2%	63.2%	28.5%
2026-09-09T15:53:33+00:00	78.7%	37.6%	93.2%	63.2%	28.5%
2026-09-09T16:38:38+00:00	78.7%	37.6%	93.2%	63.2%	31.5%
2026-09-09T17:23:44+00:00	78.7%	37.6%	88.0%	63.2%	31.5%
2026-09-09T18:08:51+00:00	78.7%	37.6%	88.0%	63.2%	31.5%
2026-09-09T18:53:56+00:00	78.7%	37.6%	88.0%	63.2%	31.5%
2026-09-09T19:39:02+00:00	88.3%	37.6%	88.0%	76.5%	31.5%
2026-09-09T20:24:12+00:00	88.3%	37.6%	88.0%	76.5%	31.5%
2026-09-09T21:09:17+00:00	88.3%	37.6%	88.0%	76.5%	31.5%
2026-09-09T21:54:22+00:00	88.3%	37.6%	88.0%	76.5%	31.5%
2026-09-09T22:39:30+00:00	88.3%	37.6%	88.0%	76.5%	31.5%
2026-09-09T23:24:35+00:00	88.3%	37.6%	92.0%	76.5%	31.5%
2026-09-10T00:09:40+00:00	88.3%	37.6%	92.0%	76.5%	31.5%
2026-09-10T00:54:47+00:00	88.3%	37.6%	92.0%	76.5%	31.5%
2026-09-10T01:39:53+00:00	87.9%	37.6%	92.0%	76.5%	31.5%
2026-09-10T02:25:00+00:00	87.9%	71.9%	92.0%	76.5%	31.5%
2026-09-10T03:10:08+00:00	87.9%	71.9%	92.0%	76.5%	31.5%
2026-09-10T03:55:18+00:00	87.9%	71.9%	92.0%	76.5%	31.5%
2026-09-10T04:40:23+00:00	87.9%	71.9%	92.0%	76.5%	41.1%
2026-09-10T05:25:28+00:00	87.9%	71.9%	95.2%	76.5%	41.1%
2026-09-10T06:10:35+00:00	87.9%	71.9%	95.2%	76.5%	41.1%
2026-09-10T06:55:40+00:00	87.9%	71.9%	95.2%	76.5%	41.1%
2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:00	90.2%	71.9%	95.2%	72.9%	41.1%
2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:00	90.2%	71.9%	95.2%	72.9%	41.1%
2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:00	90.2%	71.9%	95.2%	72.9%	41.1%
2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:00	90.2%	71.9%	95.2%	72.9%	41.1%
2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:00	90.2%	71.9%	95.2%	72.9%	41.1%
2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:00	90.2%	74.0%	95.1%	72.9%	41.1%
2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:00	90.2%	74.0%	95.1%	72.9%	41.1%
2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:00	90.2%	74.0%	95.1%	72.9%	41.1%
2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:00	88.5%	74.0%	95.1%	72.9%	41.1%
2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00	88.1%	73.9%	95.1%	72.9%	41.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	82.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	81.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	77.8°F	2.0°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	78.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
National Blend	66%	77.9°F	3.3°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-10 02:00	Pending
ICON	41%	75.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260911-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗