KPIT / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Sep 11 · 02:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

90%

84%

50%

35%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 64.2¢Risks 64.25u

ICONNO 35.8¢Risks 35.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +35.75u · ICON −35.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	78.5%	—	—	38.2%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	24.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	22.6%	—	—	26.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	31.1%	13.9%	—	—	36.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	0.9%	5.2%	12.2%	—	56.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	18.4%	15.2%	12.4%	—	41.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	13.4%	32.3%	28.3%	—	33.0%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	52.4%	59.5%	35.9%	—	39.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	4.7%	54.1%	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	12.5%	18.9%	41.7%	—	46.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	7.5%	21.4%	—	—	51.7%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	29.9%	69.3%	21.4%	—	42.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	24.2%	71.3%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	24.4%	64.4%	17.8%	—	35.6%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	49.0%	64.8%	—	—	30.9%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	48.0%	69.6%	27.1%	—	33.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	29.9%	30.8%	—	—	35.3%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	37.8%	31.2%	23.5%	—	34.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	22.0%	62.5%	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	25.5%	62.9%	28.2%	—	36.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	30.5%	37.8%	76.0%	0.0%	—	33.6%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	27.0%	91.0%	58.1%	33.1%	55.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	51.2%	64.1%	47.6%	—	58.4%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	46.3%	86.3%	66.9%	52.5%	57.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	55.1%	89.7%	66.3%	—	63.9%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	51.3%	88.0%	65.7%	34.3%	79.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	58.3%	91.3%	55.6%	—	79.9%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	69.5%	93.2%	64.2%	70.7%	86.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	78.7%	68.9%	95.2%	72.8%	—	85.6%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.0%	68.3%	95.9%	71.0%	56.3%	82.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	74.6%	96.3%	77.2%	—	84.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	82.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	82.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	81.3°F	3.8°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	77.9°F	2.4°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-10 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	77.5°F	2.0°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	76.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260911-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 10 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78°F · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗