KPIT / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Sep 11 · 02:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

90%

84%

50%

35%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 64.2¢Risks 64.25u

ICONNO 35.8¢Risks 35.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +35.75u · ICON −35.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-10T15:12:00+00:00	82.6%	55.9%	91.3%	63.5%	30.6%
2026-09-10T15:57:10+00:00	82.6%	55.9%	91.3%	63.5%	30.6%
2026-09-10T16:42:14+00:00	82.6%	55.9%	91.3%	63.5%	34.7%
2026-09-10T17:27:20+00:00	82.6%	55.9%	90.8%	63.5%	34.7%
2026-09-10T18:12:27+00:00	82.6%	55.9%	90.8%	63.5%	34.7%
2026-09-10T18:57:33+00:00	82.6%	55.9%	90.8%	63.5%	34.7%
2026-09-10T19:42:38+00:00	89.9%	55.9%	90.8%	84.3%	34.7%
2026-09-10T20:27:44+00:00	89.9%	55.9%	90.8%	84.3%	34.7%
2026-09-10T21:12:49+00:00	89.9%	55.9%	90.8%	84.3%	34.7%
2026-09-10T21:57:54+00:00	89.9%	55.9%	90.8%	84.3%	34.7%
2026-09-10T22:42:58+00:00	89.9%	55.9%	90.8%	84.3%	34.7%
2026-09-10T23:28:02+00:00	89.9%	55.9%	93.8%	84.3%	34.7%
2026-09-11T00:13:08+00:00	89.9%	55.9%	93.8%	84.3%	34.7%
2026-09-11T00:58:15+00:00	89.9%	57.8%	93.8%	84.3%	34.7%
2026-09-11T01:43:21+00:00	90.3%	50.0%	93.8%	84.3%	34.7%
2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:00	90.3%	50.0%	93.8%	84.3%	34.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	82.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	82.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	81.3°F	3.8°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	77.9°F	2.4°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-10 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	77.5°F	2.0°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	76.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260911-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 10 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78°F · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗