KPIT / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Sep 11 · 06:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

79%

68%

19%

16%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 51.2¢Risks 51.25u

EPSNO 48.8¢Risks 48.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +48.75u · EPS −48.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	56.2%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	68.2%	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	14.1%	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	20.3%	7.7%	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	0.3%	2.4%	6.5%	—	42.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	10.3%	8.2%	6.4%	—	27.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	6.8%	20.0%	16.9%	—	20.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	36.7%	43.6%	22.4%	—	24.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	1.8%	38.0%	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	5.8%	9.7%	26.5%	—	30.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	3.1%	11.1%	—	—	35.0%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	16.7%	52.6%	10.9%	—	26.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	12.5%	54.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	12.4%	46.3%	8.3%	—	20.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	30.9%	46.2%	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	29.6%	51.0%	13.6%	—	17.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	15.2%	15.8%	—	—	19.0%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	20.4%	15.7%	10.8%	—	18.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	9.6%	41.6%	—	—	21.3%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	11.4%	41.3%	13.1%	—	18.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	19.0%	55.6%	0.0%	—	16.1%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	11.6%	77.6%	35.2%	15.3%	33.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	28.3%	40.5%	25.3%	—	34.7%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	23.6%	68.0%	42.6%	28.7%	33.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	30.2%	73.1%	41.0%	—	38.5%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	26.2%	69.3%	39.4%	14.1%	55.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.7%	31.2%	74.7%	28.8%	—	55.6%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	41.4%	77.8%	35.8%	42.8%	64.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	39.5%	81.9%	44.0%	—	61.9%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.3%	37.6%	82.9%	40.6%	26.3%	56.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	43.4%	83.0%	46.7%	—	56.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	83.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	82.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	81.3°F	3.8°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	80.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-11 02:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	19%	76.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	77.5°F	2.0°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260911-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 11 · 03:13 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗