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KPIT / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Sep 11 · 06:59 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
86%
AIFS
79%
HRES
68%
ICON
19%
EPS
16%
Consensus
47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 51.2¢Risks 51.25u
VS
EPSNO 48.8¢Risks 48.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +48.75u · EPS −48.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 79.3% · 2026-09-11T03:13:33+00:00AIFS Single: 79.3% · 2026-09-11T03:58:44+00:00AIFS Single: 79.3% · 2026-09-11T04:43:49+00:00AIFS Single: 79.3% · 2026-09-11T05:28:54+00:00AIFS Single: 79.3% · 2026-09-11T06:14:03+00:00AIFS Single: 79.3% · 2026-09-11T06:59:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.2% · 2026-09-11T03:13:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.2% · 2026-09-11T03:58:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.2% · 2026-09-11T04:43:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.2% · 2026-09-11T05:28:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.2% · 2026-09-11T06:14:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.2% · 2026-09-11T06:59:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-11T03:13:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-11T03:58:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-11T04:43:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-09-11T05:28:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-09-11T06:14:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-09-11T06:59:07+00:00IFS HRES: 68.3% · 2026-09-11T03:13:33+00:00IFS HRES: 68.3% · 2026-09-11T03:58:44+00:00IFS HRES: 68.3% · 2026-09-11T04:43:49+00:00IFS HRES: 68.3% · 2026-09-11T05:28:54+00:00IFS HRES: 68.3% · 2026-09-11T06:14:03+00:00IFS HRES: 68.3% · 2026-09-11T06:59:07+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-09-11T03:13:33+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-09-11T03:58:44+00:00ICON: 18.8% · 2026-09-11T04:43:49+00:00ICON: 18.8% · 2026-09-11T05:28:54+00:00ICON: 18.8% · 2026-09-11T06:14:03+00:00ICON: 18.8% · 2026-09-11T06:59:07+00:0009-11 03:1309-11 05:2809-11 06:59
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-11T06:59:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-11T03:13:33+00:0079.3%16.2%82.8%68.3%16.9%
2026-09-11T03:58:44+00:0079.3%16.2%82.8%68.3%16.9%
2026-09-11T04:43:49+00:0079.3%16.2%82.8%68.3%18.8%
2026-09-11T05:28:54+00:0079.3%16.2%86.3%68.3%18.8%
2026-09-11T06:14:03+00:0079.3%16.2%86.3%68.3%18.8%
2026-09-11T06:59:07+00:0079.3%16.2%86.3%68.3%18.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 286%83.2°F3.4°F2026-09-10 18:00Pending
AIFS Single79%82.9°F4.2°F2026-09-10 18:00Pending
IFS HRES68%81.3°F3.8°F2026-09-10 12:00Pending
NWS forecast57%80.0°F2.8°F2026-09-11 02:00Pending
National Blend41%79.0°F2.2°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending
ICON19%76.5°F3.4°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble16%77.5°F2.0°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260911-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 11 · 03:13 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗