Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	—	—	—	24.1%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	43.7%	—	—	10.7%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	4.2%	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	6.6%	1.8%	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	0.0%	0.4%	1.3%	—	18.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	2.3%	1.7%	1.2%	—	9.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	1.2%	5.4%	4.2%	—	5.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	12.7%	16.9%	5.9%	—	6.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	0.2%	13.0%	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.8%	1.6%	7.1%	—	9.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	0.3%	1.9%	—	—	10.7%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	3.2%	20.8%	1.7%	—	6.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	2.0%	21.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	1.9%	15.4%	1.0%	—	3.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	7.4%	14.8%	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	6.5%	17.1%	1.9%	—	2.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	2.1%	2.2%	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	3.2%	2.1%	1.2%	—	2.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	0.9%	10.1%	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	1.1%	9.4%	1.3%	—	2.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	2.2%	16.1%	0.0%	—	1.7%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.9%	34.1%	6.1%	1.4%	5.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	3.7%	7.4%	3.1%	—	5.5%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	2.5%	21.7%	7.5%	3.5%	4.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	3.5%	24.8%	6.4%	—	5.6%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	2.4%	20.0%	5.3%	0.8%	11.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	3.0%	23.2%	2.5%	—	10.4%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	4.7%	24.5%	3.5%	5.1%	13.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	3.7%	27.2%	4.8%	—	11.2%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	2.9%	26.3%	3.4%	1.3%	7.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.4%	24.1%	4.1%	—	6.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	15%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	6%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	2%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	1%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260911-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗