Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 84°F
Who takes which side?
Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.
Head-to-head preview
ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.
AIFS +46.08u · EPS −46.08u
These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →
Probability history
Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.
Forecasts & evidence
| MODEL | YES | MEAN | SPREAD σ | INITIALIZATION UTC | BRIER ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIFS Single | 15% | — | — | Not retained | Pending |
| WeatherNext 2 | 7% | — | — | Not retained | Pending |
| ICON | 6% | — | — | Not retained | Pending |
| IFS HRES | 5% | — | — | Not retained | Pending |
| National Blend | 2% | — | — | Not retained | Pending |
| NWS forecast | 1% | — | — | Not retained | Pending |
| IFS Ensemble | 1% | — | — | Not retained | Pending |
Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.
High ≥ 84°F · KPIT
Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.
WP-KPIT-20260911-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC
Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Fri Sep 11
Original prop, full history & receipt ↗