KPIT / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

93%

88%

79%

69%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 82.5¢Risks 82.55u

AIFSNO 17.5¢Risks 17.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +17.45u · AIFS −17.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	72.0%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	80.7%	—	—	37.9%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	18.9%	—	—	53.8%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	14.8%	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	33.0%	—	—	62.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	64.4%	4.0%	—	63.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	86.1%	74.6%	—	74.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	88.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	46.9%	46.9%	55.3%	—	84.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	53.9%	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	48.4%	91.9%	65.5%	—	86.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	3.6%	84.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	30.0%	78.1%	48.3%	—	82.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	65.0%	86.8%	—	—	82.7%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.1%	84.4%	88.7%	58.7%	—	86.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	79.8%	85.0%	—	—	85.0%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	59.1%	40.0%	71.0%	—	85.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	76.2%	25.3%	—	—	80.4%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	85.3%	82.9%	64.3%	—	81.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	81.7%	87.6%	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	63.1%	60.2%	93.3%	—	88.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	58.4%	2.6%	—	—	88.4%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	90.1%	1.4%	93.4%	9.4%	89.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	61.1%	33.6%	0.8%	—	90.8%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	34.1%	0.8%	81.0%	23.3%	77.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	44.0%	3.1%	80.1%	—	83.3%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	15.9%	4.9%	80.1%	95.1%	95.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.9%	36.1%	4.3%	57.7%	—	95.4%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	93.0%	7.0%	92.1%	0.8%	93.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	98.4%	72.4%	96.0%	—	95.7%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	62.8%	97.1%	69.5%	89.8%	98.8%	98.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	94.8%	99.0%	71.5%	—	99.1%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	75.0%	93.9%	99.4%	78.6%	98.9%	95.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	90.1%	85.9%	75.9%	—	70.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	96%	84.0°F	3.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	93%	81.0°F	2.3°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	81.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	79%	80.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	79.6°F	4.2°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
National Blend	65%	78.9°F	3.6°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-11 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260912-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 11 · 15:15 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78°F · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗