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KPIT / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
96%
EPS
93%
WN2
88%
ICON
79%
AIFS
69%
Consensus
88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 82.5¢Risks 82.55u
VS
AIFSNO 17.5¢Risks 17.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +17.45u · AIFS −17.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-09-11T15:15:56+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-09-11T16:01:07+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-09-11T16:46:12+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-09-11T17:31:18+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-09-11T18:16:26+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-09-11T19:01:31+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-09-11T19:46:36+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-09-11T20:31:43+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-09-11T21:16:48+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-09-11T22:01:56+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-09-11T22:47:01+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-09-11T23:32:06+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-09-12T00:17:13+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-09-12T01:02:21+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-09-12T01:47:26+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.4% · 2026-09-11T15:15:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.4% · 2026-09-11T16:01:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.4% · 2026-09-11T16:46:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.4% · 2026-09-11T17:31:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.4% · 2026-09-11T18:16:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.4% · 2026-09-11T19:01:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.4% · 2026-09-11T19:46:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.4% · 2026-09-11T20:31:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.4% · 2026-09-11T21:16:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.4% · 2026-09-11T22:01:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.4% · 2026-09-11T22:47:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.4% · 2026-09-11T23:32:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.4% · 2026-09-12T00:17:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.4% · 2026-09-12T01:02:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.4% · 2026-09-12T01:47:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.4% · 2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.6% · 2026-09-11T15:15:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.6% · 2026-09-11T16:01:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.6% · 2026-09-11T16:46:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-09-11T17:31:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-09-11T18:16:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-09-11T19:01:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-09-11T19:46:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-09-11T20:31:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-09-11T21:16:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-09-11T22:01:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-09-11T22:47:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-09-11T23:32:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-09-12T00:17:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-09-12T01:02:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-09-12T01:47:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00IFS HRES: 99.3% · 2026-09-11T15:15:56+00:00IFS HRES: 99.3% · 2026-09-11T16:01:07+00:00IFS HRES: 99.3% · 2026-09-11T16:46:12+00:00IFS HRES: 99.3% · 2026-09-11T17:31:18+00:00IFS HRES: 99.3% · 2026-09-11T18:16:26+00:00IFS HRES: 99.3% · 2026-09-11T19:01:31+00:00IFS HRES: 95.7% · 2026-09-11T19:46:36+00:00IFS HRES: 95.7% · 2026-09-11T20:31:43+00:00IFS HRES: 95.7% · 2026-09-11T21:16:48+00:00IFS HRES: 95.7% · 2026-09-11T22:01:56+00:00IFS HRES: 95.7% · 2026-09-11T22:47:01+00:00IFS HRES: 95.7% · 2026-09-11T23:32:06+00:00IFS HRES: 95.7% · 2026-09-12T00:17:13+00:00IFS HRES: 95.7% · 2026-09-12T01:02:21+00:00IFS HRES: 95.7% · 2026-09-12T01:47:26+00:00IFS HRES: 95.7% · 2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-09-11T15:15:56+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-09-11T16:01:07+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-11T16:46:12+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-11T17:31:18+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-11T18:16:26+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-11T19:01:31+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-11T19:46:36+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-11T20:31:43+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-11T21:16:48+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-11T22:01:56+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-11T22:47:01+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-11T23:32:06+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-12T00:17:13+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-12T01:02:21+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-12T01:47:26+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:0009-11 15:1509-11 21:1609-12 02:32
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-11T15:15:56+00:0069.4%93.4%92.6%99.3%9.3%
2026-09-11T16:01:07+00:0069.4%93.4%92.6%99.3%9.3%
2026-09-11T16:46:12+00:0069.4%93.4%92.6%99.3%79.3%
2026-09-11T17:31:18+00:0069.4%93.4%91.8%99.3%79.3%
2026-09-11T18:16:26+00:0069.4%93.4%91.8%99.3%79.3%
2026-09-11T19:01:31+00:0069.4%93.4%91.8%99.3%79.3%
2026-09-11T19:46:36+00:0069.4%93.4%91.8%95.7%79.3%
2026-09-11T20:31:43+00:0069.4%93.4%91.8%95.7%79.3%
2026-09-11T21:16:48+00:0069.4%93.4%91.8%95.7%79.3%
2026-09-11T22:01:56+00:0069.4%93.4%91.8%95.7%79.3%
2026-09-11T22:47:01+00:0069.4%93.4%91.8%95.7%79.3%
2026-09-11T23:32:06+00:0069.4%93.4%88.2%95.7%79.3%
2026-09-12T00:17:13+00:0069.4%93.4%88.2%95.7%79.3%
2026-09-12T01:02:21+00:0069.4%93.4%88.2%95.7%79.3%
2026-09-12T01:47:26+00:0069.4%93.4%88.2%95.7%79.3%
2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:0069.4%93.4%88.2%95.7%79.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES96%84.0°F3.8°F2026-09-11 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble93%81.0°F2.3°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 288%81.5°F3.4°F2026-09-11 12:00Pending
ICON79%80.4°F3.5°F2026-09-11 12:00Pending
AIFS Single69%79.6°F4.2°F2026-09-11 18:00Pending
National Blend65%78.9°F3.6°F2026-09-11 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%78.0°F3.1°F2026-09-11 14:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260912-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 11 · 15:15 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78°F · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗