KPIT / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

59%

26%

24%

23%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 43.2¢Risks 43.25u

EPSNO 56.8¢Risks 56.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +56.75u · EPS −56.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	49.4%	—	—	11.7%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	3.4%	—	—	19.8%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	2.1%	—	—	39.7%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	7.2%	—	—	23.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	24.6%	0.2%	—	24.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	49.3%	33.0%	—	32.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	11.0%	11.0%	15.5%	—	43.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	14.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	10.8%	57.9%	21.2%	—	46.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	0.1%	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	3.8%	31.5%	9.7%	—	36.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	18.4%	43.2%	—	—	36.6%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	37.9%	45.6%	13.6%	—	42.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	30.2%	37.6%	—	—	37.6%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	12.4%	5.0%	20.3%	—	37.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	23.8%	1.8%	—	—	28.4%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	33.9%	30.4%	13.6%	—	28.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	27.4%	36.3%	—	—	18.3%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	11.3%	9.8%	47.9%	—	36.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	8.3%	0.0%	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	36.1%	0.0%	44.5%	0.1%	34.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	7.9%	1.7%	0.0%	—	35.7%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.5%	0.0%	19.1%	0.7%	16.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.5%	0.0%	16.7%	—	19.9%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%	15.1%	41.3%	43.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.1%	0.0%	4.0%	—	39.8%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	29.5%	0.0%	27.3%	0.0%	31.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	51.4%	6.7%	36.3%	—	35.0%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	38.6%	4.7%	18.2%	52.9%	51.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	26.0%	51.5%	4.4%	—	53.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	20.3%	56.3%	5.7%	46.8%	26.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	11.5%	7.9%	3.7%	—	2.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	63%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	24%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	20%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	18%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260912-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗