KPIT / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Sep 12 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

22%

12%

12%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 25.7¢Risks 25.65u

EPSNO 74.4¢Risks 74.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +74.35u · EPS −74.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	43.6%	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	2.4%	—	—	15.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	1.4%	—	—	33.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	5.2%	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	19.4%	0.1%	—	18.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	42.0%	26.6%	—	26.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	7.8%	7.8%	11.4%	—	36.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	10.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	7.5%	50.0%	15.9%	—	39.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	0.1%	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	2.3%	24.5%	6.6%	—	29.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	13.2%	35.0%	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	29.9%	37.1%	9.4%	—	33.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	22.9%	29.4%	—	—	29.4%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	8.3%	3.0%	14.4%	—	28.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	17.1%	1.0%	—	—	21.0%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	25.5%	22.5%	9.0%	—	21.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	19.7%	27.4%	—	—	12.4%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	7.1%	6.1%	37.8%	—	27.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	5.0%	0.0%	—	—	25.3%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	26.4%	0.0%	34.1%	0.1%	24.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.5%	0.8%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.7%	0.0%	12.1%	0.3%	10.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	0.0%	10.2%	—	12.6%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	8.9%	29.8%	32.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%	1.9%	—	28.0%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	19.1%	0.0%	17.3%	0.0%	21.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	37.7%	3.2%	24.2%	—	23.2%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	25.6%	2.1%	10.2%	38.6%	37.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	15.3%	36.6%	1.8%	—	38.1%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	11.0%	40.6%	2.4%	31.7%	15.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.3%	3.4%	1.4%	—	0.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	45%	84.0°F	3.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	81.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	18%	82.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-12 02:00	Pending
ICON	12%	80.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	79.6°F	4.2°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	81.0°F	2.3°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260912-TMAX-GE85
Opened Sep 07 · 14:25 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗