KPIT / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Sep 13 · 03:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

93%

80%

59%

41%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.2¢Risks 67.25u

ICONNO 32.8¢Risks 32.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.75u · ICON −32.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	68.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	87.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	66.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	84.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	92.3%	—	—	75.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	7.9%	81.1%	4.9%	—	70.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	50.0%	89.4%	63.6%	—	80.6%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	83.5%	74.9%	—	71.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	76.5%	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	18.9%	89.2%	69.2%	—	73.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	14.4%	76.3%	—	—	16.8%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	78.7%	63.9%	50.8%	55.0%	—	75.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	74.0%	74.0%	77.4%	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	73.1%	82.8%	86.9%	54.4%	—	73.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	69.8%	91.2%	—	—	62.4%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	75.6%	91.4%	79.1%	—	73.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.9%	83.5%	89.6%	—	—	63.0%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	75.3%	76.8%	66.1%	—	71.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	58.0%	66.5%	—	—	70.9%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	59.2%	67.0%	76.5%	42.8%	74.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	73.0%	81.0%	—	—	70.2%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	73.6%	39.2%	75.3%	12.5%	71.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	76.9%	24.9%	1.1%	—	68.5%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	61.5%	74.9%	64.8%	—	66.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.6%	57.2%	78.4%	66.4%	—	67.5%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	59.9%	84.1%	65.8%	0.1%	74.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	57.7%	68.7%	66.3%	—	70.9%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	72.7%	58.0%	65.7%	76.0%	38.1%	72.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	63.7%	92.4%	75.8%	—	67.5%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	64.2%	89.8%	69.5%	60.1%	76.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	64.8%	61.9%	66.2%	—	80.8%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	71.0%	86.6%	85.8%	65.4%	82.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	77.2%	93.7%	92.7%	—	88.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	84.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	85.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
National Blend	80%	80.9°F	1.6°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	82.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	80.0°F	2.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-12 14:00	Pending
ICON	41%	78.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260913-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 11 · 15:15 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗