KPIT / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Sep 13 · 03:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

93%

80%

59%

41%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.2¢Risks 67.25u

ICONNO 32.8¢Risks 32.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.75u · ICON −32.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T03:21:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-11T15:15:56+00:00	93.0%	61.3%	95.2%	79.3%	69.5%
2026-09-11T16:01:07+00:00	93.0%	61.3%	95.2%	79.3%	69.5%
2026-09-11T16:46:12+00:00	93.0%	61.3%	95.2%	79.3%	55.6%
2026-09-11T17:31:18+00:00	93.0%	61.3%	94.2%	79.3%	55.6%
2026-09-11T18:16:26+00:00	93.0%	61.3%	94.2%	79.3%	55.6%
2026-09-11T19:01:31+00:00	93.0%	61.3%	94.2%	79.3%	55.6%
2026-09-11T19:46:36+00:00	92.7%	61.3%	94.2%	73.4%	55.6%
2026-09-11T20:31:43+00:00	92.7%	61.3%	94.2%	73.4%	55.6%
2026-09-11T21:16:48+00:00	92.7%	61.3%	94.2%	73.4%	55.6%
2026-09-11T22:01:56+00:00	92.7%	61.3%	94.2%	73.4%	55.6%
2026-09-11T22:47:01+00:00	92.7%	61.3%	94.2%	73.4%	55.6%
2026-09-11T23:32:06+00:00	92.7%	61.3%	94.2%	73.4%	55.6%
2026-09-12T00:17:13+00:00	92.7%	61.3%	94.2%	73.4%	55.6%
2026-09-12T01:02:21+00:00	92.7%	61.3%	94.2%	73.4%	55.6%
2026-09-12T01:47:26+00:00	91.6%	61.3%	94.2%	73.4%	55.6%
2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00	91.6%	61.3%	94.2%	73.4%	55.6%
2026-09-12T15:20:07+00:00	93.9%	59.3%	94.5%	80.2%	43.3%
2026-09-12T16:05:20+00:00	93.9%	59.3%	94.5%	80.2%	43.3%
2026-09-12T16:50:26+00:00	93.9%	59.3%	94.5%	80.2%	43.3%
2026-09-12T17:35:31+00:00	93.9%	59.3%	93.4%	80.2%	43.3%
2026-09-12T18:20:40+00:00	93.9%	59.3%	93.4%	80.2%	43.3%
2026-09-12T19:05:45+00:00	93.9%	59.3%	93.4%	80.2%	43.3%
2026-09-12T19:50:50+00:00	92.3%	59.3%	93.4%	80.2%	41.1%
2026-09-12T20:35:56+00:00	92.3%	59.3%	93.4%	80.2%	41.1%
2026-09-12T21:21:01+00:00	92.3%	59.3%	93.4%	80.2%	41.1%
2026-09-12T22:06:07+00:00	92.3%	59.3%	93.4%	80.2%	41.1%
2026-09-12T22:51:12+00:00	92.3%	59.3%	93.4%	79.5%	41.1%
2026-09-12T23:36:18+00:00	92.3%	59.3%	93.4%	79.5%	41.1%
2026-09-13T00:21:24+00:00	92.3%	59.3%	93.4%	79.5%	41.1%
2026-09-13T01:06:31+00:00	92.3%	59.3%	93.4%	79.5%	41.1%
2026-09-13T01:51:41+00:00	93.0%	59.3%	93.4%	79.5%	41.1%
2026-09-13T02:36:51+00:00	93.0%	59.3%	93.4%	79.5%	41.1%
2026-09-13T03:21:56+00:00	93.0%	59.3%	93.4%	79.5%	41.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	84.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	85.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
National Blend	80%	80.9°F	1.6°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	82.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	80.0°F	2.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-12 14:00	Pending
ICON	41%	78.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260913-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 11 · 15:15 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗