KPIT / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Sep 07 · 14:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

80%

79%

72%

62%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 76.8¢Risks 76.80u

ICONNO 23.2¢Risks 23.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.20u · ICON −23.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	62.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	64.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	59.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	84.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	60.3%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	89.5%	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	85.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	5.6%	75.9%	3.3%	—	63.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	83.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	42.7%	85.6%	56.6%	—	75.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	82.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	78.4%	68.4%	—	64.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	70.1%	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	14.0%	85.1%	61.8%	—	66.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	61.3%	10.2%	69.5%	—	—	12.2%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	55.8%	42.5%	46.7%	—	68.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	66.6%	70.4%	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	76.6%	81.6%	45.6%	—	65.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	61.5%	87.0%	—	—	53.6%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	67.8%	87.1%	71.8%	—	65.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	76.9%	84.6%	—	—	53.8%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	67.0%	68.7%	56.8%	—	62.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	48.0%	57.0%	—	—	61.8%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	49.0%	57.2%	67.9%	33.0%	66.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	63.5%	73.0%	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	63.9%	29.2%	65.9%	7.7%	61.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	67.5%	16.8%	0.5%	—	57.8%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	50.0%	64.8%	53.5%	—	55.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	45.2%	68.5%	54.8%	—	56.0%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	47.5%	75.4%	53.7%	0.0%	63.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	44.9%	56.4%	53.9%	—	59.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	44.6%	52.7%	64.4%	26.2%	60.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	50.0%	86.1%	63.7%	—	54.2%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.2%	50.0%	81.8%	55.8%	45.7%	64.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	50.0%	47.0%	51.5%	—	68.9%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	75.0%	56.3%	76.2%	75.0%	50.0%	71.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	63.0%	86.9%	85.0%	—	78.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	79%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	62%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	55%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260913-TMAX-GE81
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 81.4°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗