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KPIT / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Sep 07 · 14:51 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
92%
HRES
80%
WN2
79%
EPS
72%
ICON
62%
Consensus
79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 76.8¢Risks 76.80u
VS
ICONNO 23.2¢Risks 23.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.20u · ICON −23.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 91.8% · 2026-09-07T14:03:22+00:00AIFS Single: 91.8% · 2026-09-07T14:25:56+00:00AIFS Single: 91.8% · 2026-09-07T14:27:38+00:00AIFS Single: 91.8% · 2026-09-07T14:51:44+00:00AIFS Single: 91.8% · 2026-09-07T14:51:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.1% · 2026-09-07T14:03:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.1% · 2026-09-07T14:25:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.1% · 2026-09-07T14:27:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.1% · 2026-09-07T14:51:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.1% · 2026-09-07T14:51:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.0% · 2026-09-07T14:03:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.0% · 2026-09-07T14:25:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.0% · 2026-09-07T14:27:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.0% · 2026-09-07T14:51:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.0% · 2026-09-07T14:51:47+00:00IFS HRES: 80.1% · 2026-09-07T14:03:22+00:00IFS HRES: 80.1% · 2026-09-07T14:25:56+00:00IFS HRES: 80.1% · 2026-09-07T14:27:38+00:00IFS HRES: 80.1% · 2026-09-07T14:51:44+00:00IFS HRES: 80.1% · 2026-09-07T14:51:47+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-09-07T14:03:22+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-09-07T14:25:56+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-09-07T14:27:38+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-09-07T14:51:44+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-09-07T14:51:47+00:0009-07 14:0309-07 14:2709-07 14:51
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-07T14:51:47+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-07T14:03:22+00:0091.8%72.1%79.0%80.1%61.8%
2026-09-07T14:25:56+00:0091.8%72.1%79.0%80.1%61.8%
2026-09-07T14:27:38+00:0091.8%72.1%79.0%80.1%61.8%
2026-09-07T14:51:44+00:0091.8%72.1%79.0%80.1%61.8%
2026-09-07T14:51:47+00:0091.8%72.1%79.0%80.1%61.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single92%——Not retainedPending
IFS HRES80%——Not retainedPending
WeatherNext 279%——Not retainedPending
IFS Ensemble72%——Not retainedPending
ICON62%——Not retainedPending
National Blend55%——Not retainedPending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260913-TMAX-GE81
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 81.4°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗