KPIT / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Sep 13 · 07:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

51%

31%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.1¢Risks 31.10u

EPSNO 68.9¢Risks 68.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +68.90u · EPS −68.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	21.3%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	39.6%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	34.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	71.8%	—	—	43.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	1.1%	50.0%	0.6%	—	36.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	17.9%	62.9%	28.5%	—	47.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	50.8%	38.7%	—	35.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	40.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	3.0%	59.5%	30.9%	—	35.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	1.8%	38.0%	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	24.5%	15.2%	17.8%	—	36.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	33.4%	37.4%	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	43.9%	50.9%	16.1%	—	31.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	27.1%	58.9%	—	—	20.9%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	32.2%	58.2%	36.4%	—	29.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	41.5%	52.8%	—	—	19.6%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	29.6%	31.3%	21.0%	—	25.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	14.6%	20.4%	—	—	24.1%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	14.5%	19.7%	28.5%	7.1%	26.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	23.6%	32.6%	—	—	21.3%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	23.0%	5.0%	24.7%	0.6%	21.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	24.9%	1.8%	0.0%	—	17.5%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	12.1%	21.5%	14.0%	—	15.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	9.2%	23.4%	13.9%	—	14.5%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	9.5%	28.7%	12.4%	0.0%	18.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.1%	7.7%	12.8%	11.5%	—	14.3%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	7.0%	10.1%	16.5%	2.4%	14.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	8.1%	37.7%	14.7%	—	9.8%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	7.3%	29.3%	9.5%	5.9%	13.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	6.5%	5.6%	7.0%	—	15.3%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	7.7%	19.2%	18.1%	5.7%	15.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.2%	29.5%	26.7%	—	19.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	60%	85.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	84.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	82.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	18%	82.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-13 03:00	Pending
ICON	5%	78.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	80.0°F	2.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	82.0°F	1.1°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260913-TMAX-GE85
Opened Sep 07 · 14:25 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗