KPIT / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Sep 10 · 01:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

12%

12%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 13.9¢Risks 3.49u

ICONNO 86.1¢Risks 21.51u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +21.51u · ICON −21.51u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	16.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	12.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	12.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	26.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	39.3%	—	—	15.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	30.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.1%	18.9%	0.0%	—	10.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	3.3%	27.9%	6.9%	—	16.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	17.4%	10.7%	—	9.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	10.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.2%	22.4%	6.7%	—	8.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	0.1%	9.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	4.1%	1.9%	2.5%	—	8.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	6.7%	8.2%	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	10.5%	14.1%	1.8%	—	5.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	4.1%	18.4%	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	5.3%	17.2%	6.6%	—	4.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	8.1%	13.2%	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	4.0%	4.4%	2.1%	—	3.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.1%	1.9%	—	—	2.5%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	0.9%	1.6%	3.2%	0.3%	2.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	2.0%	3.8%	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	1.7%	0.1%	2.0%	0.0%	1.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	1.8%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.9%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.4%	1.2%	0.5%	—	0.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.2%	1.3%	0.5%	—	0.5%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	0.0%	0.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	2.0%	0.3%	—	0.1%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.4%	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	17%	84.7°F	5.1°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	84.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	85.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
ICON	11%	83.7°F	4.7°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-09 14:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	81.6°F	2.7°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260913-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Pittsburgh · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗