KPIT / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Sep 10 · 01:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

12%

12%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 13.9¢Risks 3.49u

ICONNO 86.1¢Risks 21.51u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +21.51u · ICON −21.51u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T01:39:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:03:22+00:00	39.0%	0.6%	11.3%	21.9%	14.8%
2026-09-07T14:25:56+00:00	39.0%	0.6%	11.3%	21.9%	14.8%
2026-09-07T14:27:38+00:00	39.0%	0.6%	11.3%	21.9%	14.8%
2026-09-07T14:51:44+00:00	39.0%	0.6%	11.3%	21.9%	14.8%
2026-09-07T14:51:47+00:00	39.0%	0.6%	11.3%	21.9%	14.8%
2026-09-07T15:36:54+00:00	39.0%	0.4%	11.3%	21.9%	14.8%
2026-09-07T16:22:02+00:00	39.0%	0.4%	11.3%	21.9%	14.8%
2026-09-07T17:07:08+00:00	39.0%	0.4%	10.9%	21.9%	14.8%
2026-09-07T17:52:13+00:00	39.0%	0.4%	10.9%	21.9%	14.8%
2026-09-07T18:37:18+00:00	39.0%	0.4%	10.9%	21.9%	14.8%
2026-09-07T19:22:22+00:00	39.0%	0.4%	10.9%	21.9%	14.8%
2026-09-07T20:07:30+00:00	19.7%	0.4%	10.9%	11.7%	20.1%
2026-09-07T20:52:35+00:00	19.7%	0.4%	10.9%	11.7%	20.1%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	19.7%	0.4%	10.9%	11.7%	20.1%
2026-09-07T22:22:44+00:00	19.7%	0.4%	10.9%	11.7%	20.1%
2026-09-07T23:07:49+00:00	19.7%	0.4%	10.5%	11.7%	20.1%
2026-09-07T23:52:54+00:00	19.7%	0.4%	10.5%	11.7%	20.1%
2026-09-08T00:37:59+00:00	19.7%	0.4%	10.5%	11.7%	20.1%
2026-09-08T01:23:04+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	10.5%	11.7%	20.1%
2026-09-08T02:08:09+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	10.5%	11.7%	20.1%
2026-09-08T02:53:14+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	10.5%	11.7%	20.1%
2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	10.5%	16.1%	20.1%
2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	10.5%	16.1%	20.1%
2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	14.6%	16.1%	20.1%
2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	14.6%	16.1%	20.1%
2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	14.6%	16.1%	20.1%
2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00	8.5%	0.4%	14.6%	11.7%	19.1%
2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:00	8.5%	0.4%	14.6%	11.7%	19.1%
2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:00	8.5%	0.4%	14.6%	11.7%	19.1%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	8.5%	0.4%	14.6%	11.7%	19.1%
2026-09-09T15:08:24+00:00	15.6%	—	14.5%	16.8%	16.7%
2026-09-09T15:53:33+00:00	15.6%	—	14.5%	16.8%	16.7%
2026-09-09T16:38:38+00:00	15.6%	—	14.5%	16.8%	10.6%
2026-09-09T17:23:44+00:00	15.6%	—	10.3%	16.8%	10.6%
2026-09-09T18:08:51+00:00	15.6%	—	10.3%	16.8%	10.6%
2026-09-09T18:53:56+00:00	15.6%	—	10.3%	16.8%	10.6%
2026-09-09T19:39:02+00:00	21.8%	—	10.3%	17.3%	10.6%
2026-09-09T20:24:12+00:00	21.8%	—	10.3%	17.3%	10.6%
2026-09-09T21:09:17+00:00	21.8%	—	10.3%	17.3%	10.6%
2026-09-09T21:54:22+00:00	21.8%	—	10.3%	17.3%	10.6%
2026-09-09T22:39:30+00:00	21.8%	—	10.3%	17.3%	10.6%
2026-09-09T23:24:35+00:00	21.8%	—	12.3%	17.3%	10.6%
2026-09-10T00:09:40+00:00	21.8%	—	12.3%	17.3%	10.6%
2026-09-10T00:54:47+00:00	21.8%	—	12.3%	17.3%	10.6%
2026-09-10T01:39:53+00:00	12.3%	—	12.3%	17.3%	10.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	17%	84.7°F	5.1°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	84.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	85.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
ICON	11%	83.7°F	4.7°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-09 14:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	81.6°F	2.7°F	2026-09-09 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260913-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Pittsburgh · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗