KPIT / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Sep 14 · 07:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

94%

69%

57%

50%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 75.0¢Risks 75.00u

HRESNO 25.0¢Risks 25.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +25.00u · HRES −25.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	93.4%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	95.3%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	96.6%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	91.3%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	—	—	—	89.1%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	95.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	89.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	70.9%	—	—	95.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	—	—	—	89.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	99.9%	—	—	97.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	99.4%	72.5%	—	98.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	99.5%	99.8%	—	97.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.0%	73.6%	99.6%	99.7%	—	99.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	99.9%	99.8%	99.9%	—	98.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	83.2%	99.8%	—	—	91.2%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	91.3%	99.9%	99.9%	—	98.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	91.2%	99.9%	—	—	89.7%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.8%	77.2%	90.6%	46.5%	—	86.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	87.0%	99.6%	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	79.7%	79.1%	89.0%	54.6%	92.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	88.2%	84.1%	—	—	89.1%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	87.9%	33.9%	84.7%	—	72.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	87.1%	27.4%	—	—	58.9%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	84.9%	37.8%	60.2%	—	53.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	72.1%	28.8%	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	65.9%	23.8%	33.1%	—	39.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	68.5%	26.7%	27.6%	—	37.8%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	71.0%	28.9%	34.1%	30.0%	36.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	57.2%	26.3%	21.6%	—	37.0%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	73.4%	35.4%	34.2%	34.2%	34.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	73.1%	31.4%	29.1%	—	33.7%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	80.9%	34.3%	16.5%	21.0%	27.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	71.2%	32.5%	21.1%	—	24.2%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	76.6%	31.8%	23.4%	17.2%	23.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.2%	14.4%	28.5%	26.0%	—	20.2%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	17.1%	34.6%	18.1%	15.2%	19.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	28.1%	37.0%	21.6%	—	24.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	79.3°F	2.2°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	94%	75.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	71.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending
ICON	57%	71.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	70.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	70.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260914-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 12 · 15:20 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗