KPIT / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Sep 14 · 07:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

94%

69%

57%

50%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 75.0¢Risks 75.00u

HRESNO 25.0¢Risks 25.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +25.00u · HRES −25.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T07:11:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T15:20:07+00:00	71.3%	100.0%	96.0%	53.8%	61.2%
2026-09-12T16:05:20+00:00	71.3%	100.0%	96.0%	53.8%	61.2%
2026-09-12T16:50:26+00:00	71.3%	100.0%	96.0%	53.8%	61.2%
2026-09-12T17:35:31+00:00	71.3%	100.0%	94.9%	53.8%	61.2%
2026-09-12T18:20:40+00:00	71.3%	100.0%	94.9%	53.8%	61.2%
2026-09-12T19:05:45+00:00	71.3%	100.0%	94.9%	53.8%	61.2%
2026-09-12T19:50:50+00:00	76.7%	100.0%	94.9%	53.8%	65.5%
2026-09-12T20:35:56+00:00	76.7%	100.0%	94.9%	53.8%	65.5%
2026-09-12T21:21:01+00:00	76.7%	100.0%	94.9%	53.8%	65.5%
2026-09-12T22:06:07+00:00	76.7%	100.0%	94.9%	53.8%	65.5%
2026-09-12T22:51:12+00:00	76.7%	100.0%	94.9%	49.0%	65.5%
2026-09-12T23:36:18+00:00	76.7%	100.0%	96.0%	49.0%	65.5%
2026-09-13T00:21:24+00:00	76.7%	100.0%	96.0%	49.0%	65.5%
2026-09-13T01:06:31+00:00	76.7%	100.0%	96.0%	49.0%	65.5%
2026-09-13T01:51:41+00:00	75.9%	100.0%	96.0%	49.0%	65.5%
2026-09-13T02:36:51+00:00	75.9%	100.0%	96.0%	49.0%	65.5%
2026-09-13T03:21:56+00:00	75.9%	100.0%	96.0%	49.0%	65.5%
2026-09-13T04:07:03+00:00	75.9%	100.0%	96.0%	49.0%	65.5%
2026-09-13T04:52:17+00:00	75.9%	100.0%	96.0%	49.0%	65.5%
2026-09-13T05:37:22+00:00	75.9%	100.0%	96.0%	49.0%	65.5%
2026-09-13T06:22:31+00:00	75.9%	100.0%	96.0%	49.0%	65.5%
2026-09-13T07:07:36+00:00	75.9%	100.0%	96.0%	49.0%	65.5%
2026-09-13T07:52:43+00:00	74.3%	100.0%	96.0%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T08:38:10+00:00	74.3%	100.0%	96.0%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T09:23:16+00:00	74.3%	100.0%	96.0%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T10:08:21+00:00	74.3%	100.0%	96.0%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T10:53:27+00:00	74.3%	100.0%	93.8%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T11:38:37+00:00	74.3%	100.0%	93.8%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T12:23:43+00:00	74.3%	100.0%	93.8%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T13:08:48+00:00	74.3%	100.0%	93.8%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T13:53:53+00:00	73.5%	100.0%	93.8%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T14:39:24+00:00	73.5%	100.0%	93.8%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T15:24:29+00:00	73.5%	100.0%	93.8%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	73.5%	100.0%	93.8%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T16:54:40+00:00	73.5%	100.0%	93.0%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T17:39:49+00:00	73.5%	100.0%	93.0%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T18:24:58+00:00	73.5%	100.0%	93.0%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T19:10:03+00:00	73.5%	100.0%	93.0%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T19:55:07+00:00	70.2%	100.0%	93.0%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T20:40:14+00:00	70.2%	100.0%	93.0%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T21:25:18+00:00	70.2%	100.0%	93.0%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T22:10:23+00:00	70.2%	100.0%	93.0%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T22:55:27+00:00	70.2%	100.0%	92.2%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-13T23:40:33+00:00	70.2%	100.0%	92.2%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-14T00:25:38+00:00	70.2%	100.0%	92.2%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-14T01:10:45+00:00	70.2%	100.0%	92.2%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-14T01:55:50+00:00	69.4%	100.0%	92.2%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-14T02:40:55+00:00	69.4%	100.0%	92.2%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-14T03:26:01+00:00	69.4%	100.0%	92.2%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-14T04:11:06+00:00	69.4%	100.0%	92.2%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-14T04:56:20+00:00	69.4%	100.0%	93.8%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-14T05:41:26+00:00	69.4%	100.0%	93.8%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-14T06:26:33+00:00	69.4%	100.0%	93.8%	50.0%	56.7%
2026-09-14T07:11:37+00:00	69.4%	100.0%	93.8%	50.0%	56.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	79.3°F	2.2°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	94%	75.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	71.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending
ICON	57%	71.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	70.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	70.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260914-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 12 · 15:20 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗