KPIT / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Sep 08 · 02:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

97%

83%

59%

43%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.0¢Risks 70.00u

AIFSNO 30.0¢Risks 30.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.00u · AIFS −30.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	—	—	—	71.3%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	—	—	—	82.9%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	60.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	98.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	68.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	40.7%	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	—	66.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	98.7%	—	—	87.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	94.6%	38.9%	—	90.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	97.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	95.2%	97.2%	—	83.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	97.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	37.2%	95.4%	96.1%	—	94.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	98.1%	96.6%	98.8%	—	90.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	47.5%	96.9%	—	—	62.8%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	62.3%	97.9%	97.5%	—	87.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	61.0%	98.4%	—	—	57.6%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	36.3%	58.7%	11.8%	—	50.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	50.0%	93.2%	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	37.3%	36.4%	52.8%	14.9%	60.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	50.0%	42.5%	—	—	51.9%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	48.0%	5.1%	42.3%	—	26.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	45.0%	3.2%	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	39.8%	5.5%	15.1%	—	11.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	22.8%	3.0%	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	16.9%	1.9%	3.5%	—	5.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	17.5%	2.1%	2.2%	—	4.2%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	18.3%	2.2%	3.1%	2.4%	3.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	9.2%	1.6%	1.1%	—	3.3%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	17.4%	2.6%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	15.8%	1.8%	1.5%	—	2.1%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	21.0%	1.9%	0.4%	0.6%	1.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	11.8%	1.4%	0.5%	—	0.7%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	13.8%	1.1%	0.5%	0.3%	0.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.2%	0.7%	0.5%	—	0.3%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.2%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.8%	0.2%	—	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	59%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	54%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260914-TMAX-GE76
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 76.3°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗