KPIT / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Sep 08 · 02:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

97%

83%

59%

43%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.0¢Risks 70.00u

AIFSNO 30.0¢Risks 30.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.00u · AIFS −30.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T02:53:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:03:22+00:00	80.8%	97.3%	75.0%	80.1%	20.2%
2026-09-07T14:25:56+00:00	80.8%	97.3%	75.0%	80.1%	20.2%
2026-09-07T14:27:38+00:00	80.8%	97.3%	75.0%	80.1%	20.2%
2026-09-07T14:51:44+00:00	80.8%	97.3%	75.0%	80.1%	20.2%
2026-09-07T14:51:47+00:00	80.8%	97.3%	75.0%	80.1%	20.2%
2026-09-07T15:36:54+00:00	80.8%	97.2%	75.0%	80.1%	20.2%
2026-09-07T16:22:02+00:00	80.8%	97.2%	75.0%	80.1%	20.2%
2026-09-07T17:07:08+00:00	80.8%	97.2%	87.2%	80.1%	20.2%
2026-09-07T17:52:13+00:00	80.8%	97.2%	87.2%	80.1%	20.2%
2026-09-07T18:37:18+00:00	80.8%	97.2%	87.2%	80.1%	20.2%
2026-09-07T19:22:22+00:00	80.8%	97.2%	87.2%	80.1%	20.2%
2026-09-07T20:07:30+00:00	49.3%	97.2%	87.2%	97.0%	59.3%
2026-09-07T20:52:35+00:00	49.3%	97.2%	87.2%	97.0%	59.3%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	49.3%	97.2%	87.2%	97.0%	59.3%
2026-09-07T22:22:44+00:00	49.3%	97.2%	87.2%	97.0%	59.3%
2026-09-07T23:07:49+00:00	49.3%	97.2%	83.4%	97.0%	59.3%
2026-09-07T23:52:54+00:00	49.3%	97.2%	83.4%	97.0%	59.3%
2026-09-08T00:37:59+00:00	49.3%	97.2%	83.4%	97.0%	59.3%
2026-09-08T01:23:04+00:00	42.8%	97.2%	83.4%	97.0%	59.3%
2026-09-08T02:08:09+00:00	42.8%	97.2%	83.4%	97.0%	59.3%
2026-09-08T02:53:14+00:00	42.8%	97.2%	83.4%	97.0%	59.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	59%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	54%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260914-TMAX-GE76
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 76.3°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗