KPIT / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Sep 11 · 02:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

43%

43%

19%

15%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 31.3¢Risks 31.30u

AIFSNO 68.7¢Risks 68.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +68.70u · AIFS −68.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	37.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	19.3%	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	91.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	93.8%	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	88.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	81.6%	16.2%	—	72.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	89.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	82.5%	88.0%	—	59.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	13.8%	82.1%	84.0%	—	80.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	93.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	90.0%	84.6%	92.8%	—	69.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	18.9%	85.2%	—	—	31.2%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	30.0%	88.4%	87.1%	—	62.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	28.1%	90.1%	—	—	25.3%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	10.9%	25.5%	1.9%	—	19.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	18.4%	72.1%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	10.6%	10.2%	19.6%	2.5%	25.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	17.1%	12.7%	—	—	18.4%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	15.3%	0.4%	12.1%	—	5.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	13.0%	0.2%	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	9.8%	0.4%	1.9%	—	1.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.5%	0.2%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.0%	0.1%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.9%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.9%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-10 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	79.2°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	78.7°F	7.5°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	78.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	78.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
ICON	19%	75.4°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	74.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260914-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 08 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗