KPIT / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Sep 11 · 02:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

43%

43%

19%

15%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 31.3¢Risks 31.30u

AIFSNO 68.7¢Risks 68.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +68.70u · AIFS −68.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-08T14:54:39+00:00	15.3%	57.7%	27.2%	45.2%	40.6%
2026-09-08T15:39:46+00:00	15.3%	57.7%	27.2%	45.2%	40.6%
2026-09-08T15:49:08+00:00	15.3%	57.7%	27.2%	45.2%	40.6%
2026-09-08T16:00:06+00:00	15.3%	57.7%	27.2%	45.2%	40.6%
2026-09-08T16:45:14+00:00	15.3%	57.7%	27.2%	45.2%	40.6%
2026-09-08T17:06:41+00:00	15.3%	57.7%	37.7%	45.2%	40.6%
2026-09-08T17:20:26+00:00	15.3%	57.7%	37.7%	45.2%	40.6%
2026-09-08T18:05:34+00:00	15.3%	57.7%	37.7%	45.2%	40.6%
2026-09-08T18:50:38+00:00	15.3%	57.7%	37.7%	45.2%	40.6%
2026-09-08T19:35:43+00:00	72.4%	57.7%	37.7%	90.9%	39.4%
2026-09-08T20:20:49+00:00	72.4%	57.7%	37.7%	90.9%	39.4%
2026-09-08T21:05:54+00:00	72.4%	57.7%	37.7%	90.9%	39.4%
2026-09-08T21:50:58+00:00	72.4%	57.7%	37.7%	90.9%	39.4%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00	72.4%	57.7%	37.7%	90.9%	39.4%
2026-09-08T23:21:09+00:00	72.4%	57.7%	73.5%	90.9%	39.4%
2026-09-09T00:06:14+00:00	72.4%	57.7%	73.5%	90.9%	39.4%
2026-09-09T00:51:21+00:00	72.4%	57.7%	73.5%	90.9%	39.4%
2026-09-09T01:36:26+00:00	39.7%	57.7%	73.5%	90.9%	39.4%
2026-09-09T02:21:31+00:00	39.7%	57.7%	73.5%	90.9%	39.4%
2026-09-09T03:06:37+00:00	39.7%	57.7%	73.5%	90.9%	39.4%
2026-09-09T03:51:46+00:00	39.7%	57.7%	73.5%	90.9%	39.4%
2026-09-09T04:36:50+00:00	39.7%	57.7%	73.5%	90.9%	39.4%
2026-09-09T05:21:55+00:00	39.7%	57.7%	64.0%	90.9%	39.4%
2026-09-09T06:07:01+00:00	39.7%	57.7%	64.0%	90.9%	39.4%
2026-09-09T06:52:06+00:00	39.7%	57.7%	64.0%	90.9%	39.4%
2026-09-09T07:37:14+00:00	19.6%	57.7%	64.0%	88.3%	93.1%
2026-09-09T08:22:29+00:00	19.6%	57.7%	64.0%	88.3%	93.1%
2026-09-09T09:07:33+00:00	19.6%	57.7%	64.0%	88.3%	93.1%
2026-09-09T09:52:37+00:00	19.6%	57.7%	64.0%	88.3%	93.1%
2026-09-09T10:37:41+00:00	19.6%	57.7%	64.0%	88.3%	93.1%
2026-09-09T11:22:46+00:00	19.6%	57.7%	67.7%	88.3%	93.1%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	19.6%	57.7%	67.7%	88.3%	93.1%
2026-09-09T12:52:58+00:00	19.6%	57.7%	67.7%	88.3%	93.1%
2026-09-09T13:38:03+00:00	9.8%	57.7%	67.7%	88.3%	93.1%
2026-09-09T14:23:18+00:00	9.8%	57.7%	67.7%	88.4%	93.1%
2026-09-10T15:12:00+00:00	7.6%	46.6%	23.5%	21.0%	17.8%
2026-09-10T15:57:10+00:00	7.6%	46.6%	23.5%	21.0%	17.8%
2026-09-10T16:42:14+00:00	7.6%	46.6%	23.5%	21.0%	18.9%
2026-09-10T17:27:20+00:00	7.6%	46.6%	53.1%	21.0%	18.9%
2026-09-10T18:12:27+00:00	7.6%	46.6%	53.1%	21.0%	18.9%
2026-09-10T18:57:33+00:00	7.6%	46.6%	53.1%	21.0%	18.9%
2026-09-10T19:42:38+00:00	13.2%	46.6%	53.1%	47.6%	18.9%
2026-09-10T20:27:44+00:00	13.2%	46.6%	53.1%	47.6%	18.9%
2026-09-10T21:12:49+00:00	13.2%	46.6%	53.1%	47.6%	18.9%
2026-09-10T21:57:54+00:00	13.2%	46.6%	53.1%	47.6%	18.9%
2026-09-10T22:42:58+00:00	13.2%	46.6%	53.1%	47.6%	18.9%
2026-09-10T23:28:02+00:00	13.2%	46.6%	42.8%	47.6%	18.9%
2026-09-11T00:13:08+00:00	13.2%	46.6%	42.8%	47.6%	18.9%
2026-09-11T00:58:15+00:00	13.2%	47.7%	42.8%	47.6%	18.9%
2026-09-11T01:43:21+00:00	15.0%	43.0%	42.8%	47.6%	18.9%
2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:00	15.0%	43.0%	42.8%	47.6%	18.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-10 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	79.2°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	78.7°F	7.5°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	78.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	78.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
ICON	19%	75.4°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	74.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260914-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 08 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗