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KPIT / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 11 · 06:59 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
15%
WN2
8%
EPS
5%
AIFS
2%
ICON
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 8.0¢Risks 3.98u
VS
ICONNO 92.0¢Risks 46.02u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.02u · ICON −46.02u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.5% · 2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.8% · 2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.0% · 2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.5% · 2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.1% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.9% · 2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.5% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.2% · 2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 61.0% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.8% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.9% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.1% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 80.3% · 2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.9% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 71.8% · 2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 80.6% · 2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 75.6% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 62.9% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.7% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 64.7% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.7% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 63.9% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 48.5% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 70.8% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.8% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.8% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 55.8% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 58.5% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.4% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.1% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 60.1% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 51.5% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 67.7% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 53.3% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.2% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.4% · 2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.6% · 2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.9% · 2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 42.6% · 2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.4% · 2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.6% · 2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.0% · 2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.6% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.2% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.5% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.6% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.8% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.5% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.2% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.9% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 45.4% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.9% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.2% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.1% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:0008-30 06:0009-07 00:0009-14 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:000.4%————2.4%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:0060.5%—————
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:0025.2%————24.4%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:003.9%—————
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:001.6%————14.6%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:006.8%—————
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:0018.6%————16.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:008.1%—————
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:006.9%————35.9%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:000.8%—————
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:006.9%————42.6%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:0054.8%—————
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:0020.4%————48.4%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:0017.2%—————
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:0024.0%————30.6%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:0015.6%—————
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:0031.5%————26.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:008.9%—————
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:0038.1%————38.6%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:0037.9%—————
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:0018.5%————25.2%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:0017.7%—————
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:000.1%————14.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:002.3%—80.3%———
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:003.6%————18.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:0062.2%—————
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:006.9%—4.9%——29.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:001.4%—71.8%———
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:004.0%————14.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:004.2%—80.6%———
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:001.3%—75.6%——35.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:007.1%—62.9%———
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:001.0%—50.7%3.1%—38.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:000.5%—64.7%———
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:000.1%—50.7%60.1%—24.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:000.3%—63.9%———
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:0012.9%2.0%48.5%51.5%—45.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:001.9%—70.8%———
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:000.4%61.0%50.8%67.7%—30.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:000.1%2.9%50.8%——6.5%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:000.1%5.8%55.8%53.3%—23.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:000.0%4.9%58.5%——4.1%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:000.0%1.0%3.9%0.1%—2.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:000.0%2.1%29.4%——0.0%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.8%0.8%2.2%0.1%3.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:000.0%1.6%1.0%——1.8%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:000.0%1.2%0.0%0.8%—0.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.9%0.0%——0.1%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.0%——0.0%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES15%79.2°F5.1°F2026-09-10 12:00Pending
National Blend9%75.7°F6.7°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 28%79.0°F3.9°F2026-09-10 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble5%78.9°F3.4°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
AIFS Single2%74.6°F4.7°F2026-09-10 18:00Pending
ICON1%75.6°F3.9°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending
NWS forecast<1%75.0°F3.9°F2026-09-11 02:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260914-TMAX-GE85
Opened Sep 07 · 14:25 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗