KPIT / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 11 · 06:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.0¢Risks 3.98u

ICONNO 92.0¢Risks 46.02u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.02u · ICON −46.02u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T06:59:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:25:56+00:00	22.3%	30.4%	11.1%	26.8%	4.0%
2026-09-07T14:27:38+00:00	22.3%	30.4%	11.1%	26.8%	4.0%
2026-09-07T14:51:44+00:00	22.3%	30.4%	11.1%	26.8%	4.0%
2026-09-07T14:51:47+00:00	22.3%	30.4%	11.1%	26.8%	4.0%
2026-09-07T15:36:54+00:00	22.3%	28.0%	11.1%	26.8%	4.0%
2026-09-07T16:22:02+00:00	22.3%	28.0%	11.1%	26.8%	4.0%
2026-09-07T17:07:08+00:00	22.3%	28.0%	22.4%	26.8%	4.0%
2026-09-07T17:52:13+00:00	22.3%	28.0%	22.4%	26.8%	4.0%
2026-09-07T18:37:18+00:00	22.3%	28.0%	22.4%	26.8%	4.0%
2026-09-07T19:22:22+00:00	22.3%	28.0%	22.4%	26.8%	4.0%
2026-09-07T20:07:30+00:00	5.0%	28.0%	22.4%	66.4%	24.8%
2026-09-07T20:52:35+00:00	5.0%	28.0%	22.4%	66.4%	24.8%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	5.0%	28.0%	22.4%	66.4%	24.8%
2026-09-07T22:22:44+00:00	5.0%	28.0%	22.4%	66.4%	24.8%
2026-09-07T23:07:49+00:00	5.0%	28.0%	17.7%	66.4%	24.8%
2026-09-07T23:52:54+00:00	5.0%	28.0%	17.7%	66.4%	24.8%
2026-09-08T00:37:59+00:00	5.0%	28.0%	17.7%	66.4%	24.8%
2026-09-08T01:23:04+00:00	3.5%	28.0%	17.7%	66.4%	24.8%
2026-09-08T02:08:09+00:00	3.5%	28.0%	17.7%	66.4%	24.8%
2026-09-08T02:53:14+00:00	3.5%	28.0%	17.7%	66.4%	24.8%
2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:00	3.5%	28.0%	17.7%	66.4%	24.7%
2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:00	3.5%	28.0%	17.7%	66.4%	24.7%
2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:00	3.5%	28.0%	16.6%	66.4%	24.7%
2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:00	3.5%	28.0%	16.6%	66.4%	24.7%
2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00	3.5%	28.0%	16.6%	66.4%	24.7%
2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00	0.8%	28.0%	16.6%	19.2%	16.2%
2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:00	0.8%	28.0%	16.6%	19.2%	16.2%
2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:00	0.8%	28.0%	16.6%	19.2%	16.2%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	0.8%	28.0%	16.6%	19.2%	16.2%
2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:00	0.8%	16.4%	16.6%	19.2%	16.2%
2026-09-08T11:09:15+00:00	0.8%	16.4%	4.2%	19.2%	16.2%
2026-09-08T11:54:21+00:00	0.8%	16.4%	4.2%	19.2%	16.2%
2026-09-08T12:39:25+00:00	0.8%	16.4%	4.2%	19.2%	16.2%
2026-09-08T13:24:29+00:00	2.6%	16.4%	4.2%	19.2%	16.2%
2026-09-08T14:09:34+00:00	2.5%	16.4%	4.2%	19.2%	16.3%
2026-09-08T14:54:39+00:00	2.5%	15.3%	4.2%	19.2%	16.3%
2026-09-08T15:39:46+00:00	2.5%	15.3%	4.2%	19.2%	16.3%
2026-09-08T15:49:08+00:00	2.5%	15.3%	4.2%	19.2%	16.3%
2026-09-08T16:00:06+00:00	2.5%	15.3%	4.2%	19.2%	16.3%
2026-09-08T16:45:14+00:00	2.5%	15.3%	4.2%	19.2%	16.3%
2026-09-08T17:06:41+00:00	2.5%	15.3%	7.5%	19.2%	16.3%
2026-09-08T17:20:26+00:00	2.5%	15.3%	7.5%	19.2%	16.3%
2026-09-08T18:05:34+00:00	2.5%	15.3%	7.5%	19.2%	16.3%
2026-09-08T18:50:38+00:00	2.5%	15.3%	7.5%	19.2%	16.3%
2026-09-08T19:35:43+00:00	36.9%	15.3%	7.5%	72.1%	15.5%
2026-09-08T20:20:49+00:00	36.9%	15.3%	7.5%	72.1%	15.5%
2026-09-08T21:05:54+00:00	36.9%	15.3%	7.5%	72.1%	15.5%
2026-09-08T21:50:58+00:00	36.9%	15.3%	7.5%	72.1%	15.5%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00	36.9%	15.3%	7.5%	72.1%	15.5%
2026-09-08T23:21:09+00:00	36.9%	15.3%	31.1%	72.1%	15.5%
2026-09-09T00:06:14+00:00	36.9%	15.3%	31.1%	72.1%	15.5%
2026-09-09T00:51:21+00:00	36.9%	15.3%	31.1%	72.1%	15.5%
2026-09-09T01:36:26+00:00	11.7%	15.3%	31.1%	72.1%	15.5%
2026-09-09T02:21:31+00:00	11.7%	15.3%	31.1%	72.1%	15.5%
2026-09-09T03:06:37+00:00	11.7%	15.3%	31.1%	72.1%	15.5%
2026-09-09T03:51:46+00:00	11.7%	15.3%	31.1%	72.1%	15.5%
2026-09-09T04:36:50+00:00	11.7%	15.3%	31.1%	72.1%	15.5%
2026-09-09T05:21:55+00:00	11.7%	15.3%	22.2%	72.1%	15.5%
2026-09-09T06:07:01+00:00	11.7%	15.3%	22.2%	72.1%	15.5%
2026-09-09T06:52:06+00:00	11.7%	15.3%	22.2%	72.1%	15.5%
2026-09-09T07:37:14+00:00	3.2%	15.3%	22.2%	63.3%	72.9%
2026-09-09T08:22:29+00:00	3.2%	15.3%	22.2%	63.3%	72.9%
2026-09-09T09:07:33+00:00	3.2%	15.3%	22.2%	63.3%	72.9%
2026-09-09T09:52:37+00:00	3.2%	15.3%	22.2%	63.3%	72.9%
2026-09-09T10:37:41+00:00	3.2%	15.3%	22.2%	63.3%	72.9%
2026-09-09T11:22:46+00:00	3.2%	15.3%	22.6%	63.3%	72.9%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	3.2%	15.3%	22.6%	63.3%	72.9%
2026-09-09T12:52:58+00:00	3.2%	15.3%	22.6%	63.3%	72.9%
2026-09-09T13:38:03+00:00	1.1%	15.3%	22.6%	63.3%	72.9%
2026-09-09T14:23:18+00:00	1.1%	15.3%	22.6%	63.4%	72.9%
2026-09-09T15:08:24+00:00	1.1%	10.4%	22.6%	63.4%	72.9%
2026-09-09T15:53:33+00:00	1.1%	10.4%	22.6%	63.4%	72.9%
2026-09-09T16:38:38+00:00	1.1%	10.4%	22.6%	63.4%	17.3%
2026-09-09T17:23:44+00:00	1.1%	10.4%	4.7%	63.4%	17.3%
2026-09-09T18:08:51+00:00	1.1%	10.4%	4.7%	63.4%	17.3%
2026-09-09T18:53:56+00:00	1.1%	10.4%	4.7%	63.4%	17.3%
2026-09-09T19:39:02+00:00	1.7%	10.4%	4.7%	65.3%	17.3%
2026-09-09T20:24:12+00:00	1.7%	10.4%	4.7%	65.3%	17.3%
2026-09-09T21:09:17+00:00	1.7%	10.4%	4.7%	65.3%	17.3%
2026-09-09T21:54:22+00:00	1.7%	10.4%	4.7%	65.3%	17.3%
2026-09-09T22:39:30+00:00	1.7%	10.4%	4.7%	65.3%	17.3%
2026-09-09T23:24:35+00:00	1.7%	10.4%	8.4%	65.3%	17.3%
2026-09-10T00:09:40+00:00	1.7%	10.4%	8.4%	65.3%	17.3%
2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00	1.7%	10.4%	8.4%	65.3%	17.3%
2026-09-10T01:39:53+00:00	1.2%	10.4%	8.4%	65.3%	17.3%
2026-09-10T02:25:00+00:00	1.2%	14.4%	8.4%	65.3%	17.3%
2026-09-10T03:10:08+00:00	1.2%	14.4%	8.4%	65.3%	17.3%
2026-09-10T03:55:18+00:00	1.2%	14.4%	8.4%	65.3%	17.3%
2026-09-10T04:40:23+00:00	1.2%	14.4%	8.4%	65.3%	2.2%
2026-09-10T05:25:28+00:00	1.2%	14.4%	3.5%	65.3%	2.2%
2026-09-10T06:10:35+00:00	1.2%	14.4%	3.5%	65.3%	2.2%
2026-09-10T06:55:40+00:00	1.2%	14.4%	3.5%	65.3%	2.2%
2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:00	0.7%	14.4%	3.5%	3.7%	2.2%
2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:00	0.7%	14.4%	3.5%	3.7%	2.2%
2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:00	0.7%	14.4%	3.5%	3.7%	2.2%
2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:00	0.7%	14.4%	3.5%	3.7%	2.2%
2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:00	0.7%	14.4%	3.5%	3.7%	2.2%
2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:00	0.7%	6.5%	2.1%	3.7%	2.2%
2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:00	0.7%	6.5%	2.1%	3.7%	2.2%
2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:00	0.7%	6.5%	2.1%	3.7%	2.2%
2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:00	0.6%	6.5%	2.1%	3.7%	2.2%
2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00	0.6%	6.5%	2.2%	3.7%	2.3%
2026-09-10T15:12:00+00:00	0.6%	6.5%	2.2%	3.7%	2.3%
2026-09-10T15:57:10+00:00	0.6%	6.5%	2.2%	3.7%	2.3%
2026-09-10T16:42:14+00:00	0.6%	6.5%	2.2%	3.7%	2.5%
2026-09-10T17:27:20+00:00	0.6%	6.5%	11.3%	3.7%	2.5%
2026-09-10T18:12:27+00:00	0.6%	6.5%	11.3%	3.7%	2.5%
2026-09-10T18:57:33+00:00	0.6%	6.5%	11.3%	3.7%	2.5%
2026-09-10T19:42:38+00:00	1.5%	6.5%	11.3%	14.8%	2.5%
2026-09-10T20:27:44+00:00	1.5%	6.5%	11.3%	14.8%	2.5%
2026-09-10T21:12:49+00:00	1.5%	6.5%	11.3%	14.8%	2.5%
2026-09-10T21:57:54+00:00	1.5%	6.5%	11.3%	14.8%	2.5%
2026-09-10T22:42:58+00:00	1.5%	6.5%	11.3%	14.8%	2.5%
2026-09-10T23:28:02+00:00	1.5%	6.5%	7.1%	14.8%	2.5%
2026-09-11T00:13:08+00:00	1.5%	6.5%	7.1%	14.8%	2.5%
2026-09-11T00:58:15+00:00	1.5%	6.3%	7.1%	14.8%	2.5%
2026-09-11T01:43:21+00:00	1.8%	5.0%	7.1%	14.8%	2.5%
2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:00	1.8%	5.0%	7.1%	14.8%	2.5%
2026-09-11T03:13:33+00:00	1.8%	5.0%	7.1%	14.8%	2.5%
2026-09-11T03:58:44+00:00	1.8%	5.0%	7.1%	14.8%	2.5%
2026-09-11T04:43:49+00:00	1.8%	5.0%	7.1%	14.8%	1.1%
2026-09-11T05:28:54+00:00	1.8%	5.0%	7.8%	14.8%	1.1%
2026-09-11T06:14:03+00:00	1.8%	5.0%	7.8%	14.8%	1.1%
2026-09-11T06:59:07+00:00	1.8%	5.0%	7.8%	14.8%	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	15%	79.2°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	75.7°F	6.7°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	79.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	78.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	74.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
ICON	1%	75.6°F	3.9°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-11 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260914-TMAX-GE85
Opened Sep 07 · 14:25 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗