KPIT / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Sep 08 · 10:24 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

81%

78%

25%

16%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 56.0¢Risks 55.95u

ICONNO 44.0¢Risks 44.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.05u · ICON −44.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	93.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	—	—	—	46.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	37.0%	—	—	75.6%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	5.3%	—	—	80.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	94.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	70.0%	—	—	85.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	96.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	92.3%	41.6%	—	92.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	95.1%	94.5%	92.1%	—	92.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	97.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	66.3%	91.9%	98.2%	95.0%	—	93.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	98.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	67.7%	99.1%	77.6%	—	82.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	2.2%	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	93.4%	98.3%	96.1%	35.3%	87.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	75.4%	90.8%	99.0%	—	—	80.5%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	94.8%	68.6%	81.6%	—	59.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	50.9%	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	67.8%	28.2%	79.1%	—	58.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	82.9%	45.3%	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.8%	81.0%	43.2%	68.7%	—	45.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	70.1%	52.0%	—	—	56.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.9%	72.4%	52.1%	60.2%	0.0%	70.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	73.8%	56.3%	—	—	67.4%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	42.4%	59.7%	71.8%	—	60.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.3%	47.8%	54.5%	0.0%	—	69.5%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	45.4%	0.0%	66.9%	45.4%	64.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	52.4%	63.0%	68.5%	—	53.6%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	52.5%	57.4%	63.4%	0.0%	52.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	60.2%	52.6%	69.8%	—	57.7%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	66.9%	64.4%	63.2%	42.0%	61.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	81.8%	62.3%	66.2%	—	59.7%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	82.8%	62.8%	74.4%	47.1%	69.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	74.0%	68.9%	70.2%	—	63.3%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	72.4%	78.6%	75.0%	63.9%	66.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	85.0%	84.0%	77.2%	—	71.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	96%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	54%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	16%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260915-TMAX-GE79
Opened Sep 08 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 79.3°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗