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KPIT / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Sep 08 · 10:24 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
96%
WN2
81%
EPS
78%
AIFS
25%
ICON
16%
Consensus
68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 56.0¢Risks 55.95u
VS
ICONNO 44.0¢Risks 44.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.05u · ICON −44.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 24.6% · 2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00AIFS Single: 24.6% · 2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:00AIFS Single: 24.6% · 2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:00AIFS Single: 24.6% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00AIFS Single: 24.6% · 2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.2% · 2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.2% · 2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.2% · 2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.2% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.5% · 2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00IFS HRES: 95.5% · 2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00ICON: 16.4% · 2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:0009-08 07:2309-08 08:5409-08 10:24
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:0024.6%74.2%81.3%95.5%16.4%
2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:0024.6%74.2%81.3%95.5%16.4%
2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:0024.6%74.2%81.3%95.5%16.4%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:0024.6%74.2%81.3%95.5%16.4%
2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:0024.6%77.5%81.3%95.5%16.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES96%——Not retainedPending
WeatherNext 281%——Not retainedPending
IFS Ensemble78%——Not retainedPending
National Blend54%——Not retainedPending
AIFS Single25%——Not retainedPending
ICON16%——Not retainedPending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260915-TMAX-GE79
Opened Sep 08 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 79.3°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗