KPIT / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

36%

25%

23%

15%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.7¢Risks 25.70u

EPSNO 74.3¢Risks 74.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.30u · EPS −74.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	8.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	27.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	13.2%	—	—	46.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	0.8%	—	—	51.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	37.4%	—	—	58.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	70.8%	13.7%	—	71.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	76.8%	75.1%	69.0%	—	70.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	85.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	67.0%	87.5%	75.5%	—	70.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	29.5%	91.6%	40.5%	—	46.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	0.1%	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	67.8%	85.7%	76.2%	7.7%	54.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	60.2%	89.3%	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	70.1%	26.9%	42.2%	—	19.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	13.5%	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	24.4%	4.1%	36.4%	—	17.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	40.6%	9.6%	—	—	5.3%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	36.6%	8.2%	23.2%	—	9.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	23.4%	11.4%	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	24.3%	10.8%	15.1%	0.0%	22.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	24.5%	12.1%	—	—	19.0%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	5.9%	13.1%	21.3%	—	13.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	7.1%	9.7%	0.0%	—	18.3%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	5.7%	0.0%	15.3%	5.7%	14.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	7.4%	11.9%	15.2%	—	7.8%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	6.7%	8.5%	11.2%	0.0%	6.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	8.7%	6.0%	13.5%	—	7.7%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	10.7%	9.5%	8.9%	3.0%	8.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	20.1%	7.6%	9.2%	—	6.7%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	19.1%	6.8%	12.2%	2.9%	9.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	10.5%	8.0%	8.6%	—	6.0%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	8.3%	11.7%	9.6%	5.2%	6.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	15.0%	14.1%	9.2%	—	6.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-11 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	82.7°F	5.3°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	81.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	36%	81.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	80.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	79.8°F	5.1°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	78.4°F	5.0°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260915-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 09 · 15:08 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 84°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗