KPIT / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

92%

89%

81%

65%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 79.5¢Risks 79.45u

EPSNO 20.6¢Risks 20.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +20.55u · EPS −20.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	26.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	13.2%	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	59.7%	—	—	36.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	41.9%	—	—	45.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	28.1%	12.2%	50.7%	—	38.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	90.0%	94.1%	61.6%	—	56.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	87.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	90.3%	89.7%	88.6%	36.5%	67.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	46.1%	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	85.5%	82.1%	87.7%	—	76.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	3.6%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	85.2%	58.3%	87.1%	—	75.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	87.7%	76.0%	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	91.3%	75.2%	67.0%	—	82.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	92.2%	68.2%	—	—	83.9%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	29.7%	53.7%	39.1%	—	74.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	91.6%	74.7%	—	—	77.6%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.1%	0.7%	67.8%	51.9%	—	82.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	83.0%	75.9%	—	—	81.7%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	0.3%	—	61.2%	25.1%	73.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	83.7%	26.2%	—	—	74.7%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	89.6%	25.5%	67.9%	—	81.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	89.3%	76.9%	0.0%	—	83.2%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	89.0%	27.0%	84.7%	72.0%	87.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	97.1%	57.2%	63.0%	—	88.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	94.1%	88.8%	80.1%	65.8%	89.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	96.0%	73.1%	88.5%	—	90.8%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.8%	95.4%	43.3%	66.9%	79.0%	90.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	96.8%	94.6%	90.8%	—	94.6%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	97.9%	94.5%	69.5%	42.8%	90.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	98.2%	93.0%	38.1%	—	85.6%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	75.0%	97.4%	96.6%	97.6%	98.4%	89.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	95.1%	97.9%	92.7%	—	54.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	89.3°F	5.0°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	87.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	89%	88.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	86.6°F	5.9°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	82.6°F	2.9°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-11 14:00	Pending
National Blend	51%	81.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260916-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 11 · 03:13 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 82°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗