KPIT / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

92%

89%

81%

65%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 79.5¢Risks 79.45u

EPSNO 20.6¢Risks 20.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +20.55u · EPS −20.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-11T03:13:33+00:00	90.4%	56.9%	86.9%	89.9%	93.0%
2026-09-11T03:58:44+00:00	90.4%	56.9%	86.9%	89.9%	93.0%
2026-09-11T04:43:49+00:00	90.4%	56.9%	86.9%	89.9%	90.4%
2026-09-11T05:28:54+00:00	90.4%	56.9%	91.1%	89.9%	90.4%
2026-09-11T06:14:03+00:00	90.4%	56.9%	91.1%	89.9%	90.4%
2026-09-11T06:59:07+00:00	90.4%	56.9%	91.1%	89.9%	90.4%
2026-09-11T07:44:15+00:00	95.1%	56.9%	91.1%	83.5%	90.4%
2026-09-11T08:29:33+00:00	95.1%	56.9%	91.1%	83.5%	90.4%
2026-09-11T09:14:39+00:00	95.1%	56.9%	91.1%	83.5%	90.4%
2026-09-11T09:59:44+00:00	95.1%	56.9%	91.1%	83.5%	90.4%
2026-09-11T10:44:49+00:00	95.1%	56.9%	91.1%	83.5%	90.4%
2026-09-11T11:29:54+00:00	95.1%	63.1%	92.3%	83.5%	90.4%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	95.1%	63.1%	92.3%	83.5%	90.4%
2026-09-11T13:00:08+00:00	95.1%	63.1%	92.3%	83.5%	90.4%
2026-09-11T13:45:21+00:00	86.8%	63.1%	92.3%	83.5%	90.4%
2026-09-11T14:30:49+00:00	86.9%	67.7%	92.3%	83.5%	90.3%
2026-09-11T15:15:56+00:00	86.9%	64.8%	92.3%	83.5%	90.3%
2026-09-11T16:01:07+00:00	86.9%	64.8%	92.3%	83.5%	90.3%
2026-09-11T16:46:12+00:00	86.9%	64.8%	92.3%	83.5%	89.4%
2026-09-11T17:31:18+00:00	86.9%	64.8%	91.2%	83.5%	89.4%
2026-09-11T18:16:26+00:00	86.9%	64.8%	91.2%	83.5%	89.4%
2026-09-11T19:01:31+00:00	86.9%	64.8%	91.2%	83.5%	89.4%
2026-09-11T19:46:36+00:00	95.2%	64.8%	91.2%	80.8%	89.4%
2026-09-11T20:31:43+00:00	95.2%	64.8%	91.2%	80.8%	89.4%
2026-09-11T21:16:48+00:00	95.2%	64.8%	91.2%	80.8%	89.4%
2026-09-11T22:01:56+00:00	95.2%	64.8%	91.2%	80.8%	89.4%
2026-09-11T22:47:01+00:00	95.2%	64.8%	91.2%	80.8%	89.4%
2026-09-11T23:32:06+00:00	95.2%	64.8%	92.0%	80.8%	89.4%
2026-09-12T00:17:13+00:00	95.2%	64.8%	92.0%	80.8%	89.4%
2026-09-12T01:02:21+00:00	95.2%	64.8%	92.0%	80.8%	89.4%
2026-09-12T01:47:26+00:00	94.1%	64.8%	92.0%	80.8%	89.4%
2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00	94.1%	64.8%	92.0%	80.8%	89.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	89.3°F	5.0°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	87.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	89%	88.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	86.6°F	5.9°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	82.6°F	2.9°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-11 14:00	Pending
National Blend	51%	81.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260916-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 11 · 03:13 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 82°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗