KPIT / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Sep 16 · 06:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

74%

70%

67%

46%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 65.3¢Risks 65.35u

EPSNO 34.7¢Risks 34.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +34.65u · EPS −34.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	—	15.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	7.6%	—	—	23.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	46.8%	—	—	24.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	29.4%	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	17.5%	6.5%	36.9%	—	26.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	82.0%	88.3%	47.1%	—	42.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	82.1%	81.1%	79.5%	23.4%	52.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	31.2%	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	74.5%	69.8%	77.6%	—	62.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	1.4%	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	73.5%	41.7%	76.2%	—	60.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	76.7%	61.0%	—	—	56.8%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	82.2%	59.6%	50.0%	—	68.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	70.6%	83.4%	50.9%	—	—	70.6%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	16.0%	35.6%	23.0%	—	57.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	81.7%	57.5%	—	—	61.2%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	0.2%	49.0%	33.0%	—	67.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	67.4%	58.0%	—	—	65.6%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	0.1%	—	40.8%	11.8%	54.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	67.4%	12.1%	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	76.2%	11.4%	46.7%	—	62.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	75.1%	56.7%	0.0%	—	65.4%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	74.0%	11.6%	66.9%	50.0%	72.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	90.3%	33.6%	39.3%	—	71.7%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	82.6%	72.4%	58.7%	41.3%	73.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	86.5%	48.7%	70.9%	—	75.2%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	84.3%	20.0%	40.7%	55.4%	73.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	87.5%	81.8%	73.5%	—	81.8%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	90.5%	80.9%	41.4%	18.2%	72.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	90.8%	76.4%	14.4%	—	61.9%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.3%	87.5%	84.8%	88.3%	91.1%	68.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	79.7%	88.5%	73.3%	—	24.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	84%	87.3°F	3.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	85.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
National Blend	74%	85.0°F	2.3°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	85.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	67%	85.1°F	3.6°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	84.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-16 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	83.3°F	2.2°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260916-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 09 · 07:37 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗