KPIT / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Sep 16 · 06:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

18%

13%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 14.2¢Risks 14.15u

EPSNO 85.9¢Risks 85.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +85.85u · EPS −85.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T06:36:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-09T07:37:14+00:00	54.3%	3.7%	13.0%	2.5%	32.3%
2026-09-09T08:22:29+00:00	54.3%	3.7%	13.0%	2.5%	32.3%
2026-09-09T09:07:33+00:00	54.3%	3.7%	13.0%	2.5%	32.3%
2026-09-09T09:52:37+00:00	54.3%	3.7%	13.0%	2.5%	32.3%
2026-09-09T10:37:41+00:00	54.3%	3.7%	13.0%	2.5%	32.3%
2026-09-09T11:22:46+00:00	54.3%	3.7%	19.9%	2.5%	32.3%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	54.3%	3.7%	19.9%	2.5%	32.3%
2026-09-09T12:52:58+00:00	54.3%	3.7%	19.9%	2.5%	32.3%
2026-09-09T13:38:03+00:00	46.4%	3.7%	19.9%	2.5%	32.3%
2026-09-09T14:23:18+00:00	46.4%	3.7%	19.9%	2.5%	32.6%
2026-09-09T15:08:24+00:00	46.4%	1.9%	19.9%	2.5%	32.6%
2026-09-09T15:53:33+00:00	46.4%	1.9%	19.9%	2.5%	32.6%
2026-09-09T16:38:38+00:00	46.4%	1.9%	19.9%	2.5%	22.8%
2026-09-09T17:23:44+00:00	46.4%	1.9%	13.2%	2.5%	22.8%
2026-09-09T18:08:51+00:00	46.4%	1.9%	13.2%	2.5%	22.8%
2026-09-09T18:53:56+00:00	46.4%	1.9%	13.2%	2.5%	22.8%
2026-09-09T19:39:02+00:00	44.9%	1.9%	13.2%	10.8%	30.5%
2026-09-09T20:24:12+00:00	44.9%	1.9%	13.2%	10.8%	30.5%
2026-09-09T21:09:17+00:00	44.9%	1.9%	13.2%	10.8%	30.5%
2026-09-09T21:54:22+00:00	44.9%	1.9%	13.2%	10.8%	30.5%
2026-09-09T22:39:30+00:00	44.9%	1.9%	13.2%	10.8%	30.5%
2026-09-09T23:24:35+00:00	44.9%	1.9%	11.5%	10.8%	30.5%
2026-09-10T00:09:40+00:00	44.9%	1.9%	11.5%	10.8%	30.5%
2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00	44.9%	1.9%	11.5%	10.8%	30.5%
2026-09-10T01:39:53+00:00	56.5%	1.9%	11.5%	10.8%	30.5%
2026-09-10T02:25:00+00:00	56.5%	0.5%	11.4%	10.8%	30.1%
2026-09-10T03:10:08+00:00	56.5%	0.5%	11.4%	10.8%	30.1%
2026-09-10T03:55:18+00:00	56.5%	0.5%	11.4%	10.8%	30.1%
2026-09-10T04:40:23+00:00	56.5%	0.5%	11.4%	10.8%	61.7%
2026-09-10T05:25:28+00:00	56.5%	0.5%	11.8%	10.8%	61.7%
2026-09-10T06:10:35+00:00	56.5%	0.5%	11.8%	10.8%	61.7%
2026-09-10T06:55:40+00:00	56.5%	0.5%	11.8%	10.8%	61.7%
2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:00	16.2%	0.5%	11.8%	54.2%	61.7%
2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:00	16.2%	0.5%	11.8%	54.2%	61.7%
2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:00	16.2%	0.5%	11.8%	54.2%	61.7%
2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:00	16.2%	0.5%	11.8%	54.2%	61.7%
2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:00	16.2%	0.5%	11.8%	54.2%	61.7%
2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:00	16.2%	2.1%	10.0%	54.2%	61.7%
2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:00	16.2%	2.1%	10.0%	54.2%	61.7%
2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:00	16.2%	2.1%	10.0%	54.2%	61.7%
2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:00	32.1%	2.1%	10.0%	54.2%	61.7%
2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00	32.1%	2.1%	10.1%	54.2%	62.3%
2026-09-10T15:12:00+00:00	32.1%	2.1%	10.1%	54.2%	62.3%
2026-09-10T15:57:10+00:00	32.1%	2.1%	10.1%	54.2%	62.3%
2026-09-10T16:42:14+00:00	32.1%	2.1%	10.1%	54.2%	61.1%
2026-09-10T17:27:20+00:00	32.1%	2.1%	20.3%	54.2%	61.1%
2026-09-10T18:12:27+00:00	32.1%	2.1%	20.3%	54.2%	61.1%
2026-09-10T18:57:33+00:00	32.1%	2.1%	20.3%	54.2%	61.1%
2026-09-10T19:42:38+00:00	30.8%	2.1%	20.3%	53.0%	61.1%
2026-09-10T20:27:44+00:00	30.8%	2.1%	20.3%	53.0%	61.1%
2026-09-10T21:12:49+00:00	30.8%	2.1%	20.3%	53.0%	61.1%
2026-09-10T21:57:54+00:00	30.8%	2.1%	20.3%	53.0%	61.1%
2026-09-10T22:42:58+00:00	30.8%	2.1%	20.3%	53.0%	61.1%
2026-09-10T23:28:03+00:00	30.8%	2.1%	25.1%	53.0%	61.1%
2026-09-11T00:13:08+00:00	30.8%	2.1%	25.1%	53.0%	61.1%
2026-09-11T00:58:15+00:00	30.8%	2.0%	25.1%	53.0%	61.1%
2026-09-11T01:43:21+00:00	42.6%	1.6%	25.1%	53.0%	61.1%
2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:00	42.6%	1.6%	25.1%	53.0%	61.1%
2026-09-11T03:13:33+00:00	42.6%	1.6%	25.1%	53.0%	61.1%
2026-09-11T03:58:44+00:00	42.6%	1.6%	25.1%	53.0%	61.1%
2026-09-11T04:43:49+00:00	42.6%	1.6%	25.1%	53.0%	46.5%
2026-09-11T05:28:54+00:00	42.6%	1.6%	32.7%	53.0%	46.5%
2026-09-11T06:14:03+00:00	42.6%	1.6%	32.7%	53.0%	46.5%
2026-09-11T06:59:07+00:00	42.6%	1.6%	32.7%	53.0%	46.5%
2026-09-11T07:44:15+00:00	52.4%	1.6%	32.7%	34.7%	46.5%
2026-09-11T08:29:33+00:00	52.4%	1.6%	32.7%	34.7%	46.5%
2026-09-11T09:14:39+00:00	52.4%	1.6%	32.7%	34.7%	46.5%
2026-09-11T09:59:44+00:00	52.4%	1.6%	32.7%	34.7%	46.5%
2026-09-11T10:44:49+00:00	52.4%	1.6%	32.7%	34.7%	46.5%
2026-09-11T11:29:54+00:00	52.4%	1.0%	30.6%	34.7%	46.5%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	52.4%	1.0%	30.6%	34.7%	46.5%
2026-09-11T13:00:08+00:00	52.4%	1.0%	30.6%	34.7%	46.5%
2026-09-11T13:45:21+00:00	31.6%	1.0%	30.6%	34.7%	46.5%
2026-09-11T14:30:49+00:00	31.6%	1.5%	30.6%	34.7%	46.5%
2026-09-11T15:15:56+00:00	31.6%	0.9%	30.6%	34.7%	46.5%
2026-09-11T16:01:07+00:00	31.6%	0.9%	30.6%	34.7%	46.5%
2026-09-11T16:46:12+00:00	31.6%	0.9%	30.6%	34.7%	44.5%
2026-09-11T17:31:18+00:00	31.6%	0.9%	28.1%	34.7%	44.5%
2026-09-11T18:16:26+00:00	31.6%	0.9%	28.1%	34.7%	44.5%
2026-09-11T19:01:31+00:00	31.6%	0.9%	28.1%	34.7%	44.5%
2026-09-11T19:46:36+00:00	52.4%	0.9%	28.1%	31.0%	44.5%
2026-09-11T20:31:43+00:00	52.4%	0.9%	28.1%	31.0%	44.5%
2026-09-11T21:16:48+00:00	52.4%	0.9%	28.1%	31.0%	44.5%
2026-09-11T22:01:56+00:00	52.4%	0.9%	28.1%	31.0%	44.5%
2026-09-11T22:47:02+00:00	52.4%	0.9%	28.1%	31.0%	44.5%
2026-09-11T23:32:06+00:00	52.4%	0.9%	29.7%	31.0%	44.5%
2026-09-12T00:17:13+00:00	52.4%	0.9%	29.7%	31.0%	44.5%
2026-09-12T01:02:21+00:00	52.4%	0.9%	29.7%	31.0%	44.5%
2026-09-12T01:47:26+00:00	48.4%	0.9%	29.7%	31.0%	44.5%
2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00	48.4%	0.9%	29.7%	31.0%	44.5%
2026-09-12T03:17:41+00:00	48.4%	0.9%	29.7%	31.0%	44.5%
2026-09-12T04:02:54+00:00	48.4%	0.9%	29.7%	31.0%	44.5%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	48.4%	0.9%	29.7%	31.0%	44.5%
2026-09-12T05:33:03+00:00	48.4%	0.9%	25.7%	31.0%	44.5%
2026-09-12T06:18:12+00:00	48.4%	0.9%	25.7%	31.0%	44.5%
2026-09-12T07:03:17+00:00	48.4%	0.9%	25.7%	31.0%	44.5%
2026-09-12T07:48:24+00:00	53.4%	0.9%	25.7%	32.5%	45.7%
2026-09-12T08:33:44+00:00	53.4%	0.9%	25.7%	32.5%	45.7%
2026-09-12T09:18:48+00:00	53.4%	0.9%	25.7%	32.5%	45.7%
2026-09-12T10:03:54+00:00	53.4%	0.9%	25.7%	32.5%	45.7%
2026-09-12T10:48:58+00:00	53.4%	0.9%	25.7%	32.5%	45.7%
2026-09-12T11:34:04+00:00	53.4%	0.1%	22.7%	32.5%	45.7%
2026-09-12T12:19:13+00:00	53.4%	0.1%	22.7%	32.5%	45.7%
2026-09-12T13:04:21+00:00	53.4%	0.1%	22.7%	32.5%	45.7%
2026-09-12T13:49:26+00:00	53.4%	0.1%	22.7%	32.5%	45.7%
2026-09-12T14:34:57+00:00	53.4%	0.1%	22.7%	36.5%	45.7%
2026-09-12T15:20:07+00:00	53.4%	0.2%	22.7%	32.5%	45.7%
2026-09-12T16:05:20+00:00	53.4%	0.2%	22.7%	32.5%	45.7%
2026-09-12T16:50:26+00:00	53.4%	0.2%	22.7%	32.5%	45.7%
2026-09-12T17:35:31+00:00	53.4%	0.2%	26.0%	32.5%	45.7%
2026-09-12T18:20:40+00:00	53.4%	0.2%	26.0%	32.5%	45.7%
2026-09-12T19:05:45+00:00	53.4%	0.2%	26.0%	32.5%	45.7%
2026-09-12T19:50:50+00:00	29.1%	0.2%	26.0%	32.5%	2.7%
2026-09-12T20:35:56+00:00	29.1%	0.2%	26.0%	32.5%	2.7%
2026-09-12T21:21:01+00:00	29.1%	0.2%	26.0%	32.5%	2.7%
2026-09-12T22:06:07+00:00	29.1%	0.2%	26.0%	32.5%	2.7%
2026-09-12T22:51:12+00:00	29.1%	0.2%	26.0%	27.0%	2.7%
2026-09-12T23:36:18+00:00	29.1%	0.2%	17.7%	27.0%	2.7%
2026-09-13T00:21:24+00:00	29.1%	0.2%	17.7%	27.0%	2.7%
2026-09-13T01:06:31+00:00	29.1%	0.2%	17.7%	27.0%	2.7%
2026-09-13T01:51:41+00:00	16.0%	0.2%	17.7%	27.0%	2.7%
2026-09-13T02:36:51+00:00	16.0%	0.2%	17.7%	27.0%	2.7%
2026-09-13T03:21:56+00:00	16.0%	0.2%	17.7%	27.0%	2.7%
2026-09-13T04:07:03+00:00	16.0%	0.2%	17.7%	27.0%	2.7%
2026-09-13T04:52:17+00:00	16.0%	0.2%	17.7%	27.0%	2.7%
2026-09-13T05:37:22+00:00	16.0%	0.2%	17.7%	27.0%	2.7%
2026-09-13T06:22:31+00:00	16.0%	0.2%	17.7%	27.0%	2.7%
2026-09-13T07:07:36+00:00	16.0%	0.2%	17.7%	27.0%	2.7%
2026-09-13T07:52:43+00:00	16.7%	0.2%	17.7%	40.4%	22.7%
2026-09-13T08:38:10+00:00	16.7%	0.2%	17.7%	40.4%	22.7%
2026-09-13T09:23:16+00:00	16.7%	0.2%	17.7%	40.4%	22.7%
2026-09-13T10:08:21+00:00	16.7%	0.2%	17.7%	40.4%	22.7%
2026-09-13T10:53:27+00:00	16.7%	0.2%	15.5%	40.4%	22.7%
2026-09-13T11:38:37+00:00	16.7%	0.2%	15.5%	40.4%	22.7%
2026-09-13T12:23:43+00:00	16.7%	0.2%	15.5%	40.4%	22.7%
2026-09-13T13:08:48+00:00	16.7%	0.2%	15.5%	40.4%	22.7%
2026-09-13T13:53:53+00:00	13.0%	0.2%	15.5%	40.4%	22.8%
2026-09-13T14:39:24+00:00	13.0%	0.2%	15.5%	40.4%	22.8%
2026-09-13T15:24:29+00:00	13.0%	0.3%	15.5%	40.4%	22.8%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	13.0%	0.3%	15.5%	40.4%	22.8%
2026-09-13T16:54:40+00:00	13.0%	0.3%	15.5%	40.4%	22.8%
2026-09-13T17:39:49+00:00	13.0%	0.3%	15.5%	40.4%	22.8%
2026-09-13T18:24:58+00:00	13.0%	0.3%	15.5%	40.4%	22.8%
2026-09-13T19:10:03+00:00	13.0%	0.3%	15.5%	40.4%	22.8%
2026-09-13T19:55:07+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	15.5%	21.4%	22.8%
2026-09-13T20:40:14+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	15.5%	21.4%	22.8%
2026-09-13T21:25:18+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	15.5%	21.4%	22.8%
2026-09-13T22:10:23+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	15.5%	21.4%	22.8%
2026-09-13T22:55:27+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	15.5%	21.4%	22.8%
2026-09-13T23:40:33+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	15.5%	21.4%	22.8%
2026-09-14T00:25:38+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	15.5%	21.4%	22.8%
2026-09-14T01:10:45+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	15.5%	21.4%	22.8%
2026-09-14T01:55:50+00:00	18.4%	0.3%	15.5%	21.4%	22.8%
2026-09-14T02:40:55+00:00	18.4%	0.3%	15.5%	21.4%	22.8%
2026-09-14T03:26:01+00:00	18.4%	0.3%	15.5%	21.4%	22.8%
2026-09-14T04:11:06+00:00	18.4%	0.3%	15.5%	21.4%	22.8%
2026-09-14T04:56:20+00:00	18.4%	0.3%	12.4%	21.4%	22.8%
2026-09-14T05:41:26+00:00	18.4%	0.3%	12.4%	21.4%	22.8%
2026-09-14T06:26:33+00:00	18.4%	0.3%	12.4%	21.4%	22.8%
2026-09-14T07:11:37+00:00	18.4%	0.3%	12.4%	21.4%	22.8%
2026-09-14T07:56:44+00:00	18.6%	0.3%	12.4%	24.3%	13.5%
2026-09-14T08:42:08+00:00	18.6%	0.3%	12.4%	24.3%	13.5%
2026-09-14T09:27:12+00:00	18.6%	0.3%	12.4%	24.3%	13.5%
2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:00	18.6%	0.3%	12.4%	24.3%	13.5%
2026-09-15T03:30:20+00:00	9.4%	0.1%	11.5%	29.8%	11.4%
2026-09-15T04:15:38+00:00	9.4%	0.1%	11.5%	29.8%	11.4%
2026-09-15T05:00:43+00:00	9.4%	0.1%	11.0%	29.8%	11.4%
2026-09-15T05:45:49+00:00	9.4%	0.1%	11.0%	29.8%	11.4%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	9.4%	0.1%	11.0%	29.8%	11.4%
2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:00	9.4%	0.1%	11.0%	29.8%	11.4%
2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00	10.4%	0.1%	11.0%	29.8%	10.8%
2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:00	10.4%	0.1%	11.0%	29.8%	10.8%
2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00	10.4%	0.1%	11.0%	29.8%	10.8%
2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:00	10.4%	0.1%	11.0%	29.8%	10.8%
2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	10.8%	29.8%	10.8%
2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	10.8%	29.8%	10.8%
2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	10.8%	29.8%	10.8%
2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	10.8%	29.8%	10.8%
2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:00	10.0%	0.3%	10.8%	35.0%	10.8%
2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:00	10.0%	0.3%	10.8%	35.0%	10.8%
2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00	10.0%	0.3%	10.8%	29.8%	10.8%
2026-09-16T05:06:36+00:00	17.9%	0.3%	13.1%	28.0%	10.8%
2026-09-16T05:51:44+00:00	17.9%	0.3%	13.1%	28.0%	10.8%
2026-09-16T06:36:53+00:00	17.9%	0.3%	13.1%	28.0%	10.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	28%	87.3°F	3.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	85.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	85.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	11%	85.1°F	3.6°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	85.0°F	2.3°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	84.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-16 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	83.3°F	2.2°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260916-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 09 · 07:37 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Pittsburgh · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗