KPIT / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Sep 16 · 06:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

18%

13%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 14.2¢Risks 14.15u

EPSNO 85.9¢Risks 85.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +85.85u · EPS −85.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	0.9%	—	—	4.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	14.4%	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	5.9%	—	—	7.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	2.3%	0.5%	8.2%	—	4.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	42.7%	53.6%	12.0%	—	9.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	40.9%	39.4%	37.2%	3.0%	13.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	4.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	29.5%	24.8%	33.0%	—	18.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	0.0%	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	26.5%	7.1%	29.3%	—	16.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	28.8%	15.7%	—	—	13.2%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	34.6%	14.1%	9.4%	—	20.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	35.1%	9.2%	—	—	20.9%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	0.9%	3.9%	1.7%	—	11.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	30.1%	10.8%	—	—	12.7%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.0%	6.8%	2.9%	—	15.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	14.6%	9.6%	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.0%	—	3.8%	0.3%	7.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	12.7%	0.3%	—	—	7.2%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	17.6%	0.2%	4.2%	—	9.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	15.4%	6.3%	0.0%	—	9.7%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	13.4%	0.2%	9.4%	4.0%	12.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	30.4%	1.3%	1.9%	—	10.8%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	17.4%	10.0%	4.9%	1.8%	10.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	20.0%	2.4%	8.2%	—	10.3%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	15.7%	0.2%	1.2%	3.0%	8.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	17.3%	11.8%	7.1%	—	11.8%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	19.1%	9.5%	0.8%	0.1%	5.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	17.2%	6.0%	0.0%	—	2.4%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	11.0%	8.9%	11.7%	15.2%	2.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.9%	9.9%	3.1%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	28%	87.3°F	3.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	85.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	85.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	11%	85.1°F	3.6°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	85.0°F	2.3°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	84.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-16 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	83.3°F	2.2°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260916-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 09 · 07:37 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Pittsburgh · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗