KPIT / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Sep 10 · 10:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

96%

75%

72%

49%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 73.2¢Risks 73.25u

EPSNO 26.8¢Risks 26.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +26.75u · EPS −26.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	17.7%	—	—	44.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	76.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	67.6%	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	31.2%	—	—	34.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	62.0%	46.6%	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	92.4%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	54.9%	24.6%	61.8%	18.4%	79.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	53.6%	86.9%	64.3%	—	70.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	95.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	92.2%	98.2%	73.6%	—	83.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	98.3%	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	97.6%	73.2%	96.6%	—	93.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	65.1%	92.4%	—	—	89.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	93.4%	33.0%	83.8%	—	91.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	94.1%	97.0%	—	—	92.2%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	14.6%	33.8%	—	96.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	85.5%	53.6%	42.0%	—	—	5.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	60.9%	—	94.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	56.6%	53.8%	—	—	94.4%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	91.4%	87.4%	43.2%	—	96.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	80.3%	80.3%	—	—	93.4%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	83.0%	69.7%	78.8%	39.8%	7.1%	95.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	53.2%	68.4%	—	—	96.9%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	27.3%	56.5%	23.0%	29.2%	91.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.7%	60.0%	76.0%	5.4%	—	92.1%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	41.9%	98.5%	55.8%	—	86.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	37.0%	98.5%	25.3%	—	87.4%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	37.7%	91.0%	50.0%	22.7%	96.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	46.1%	55.1%	53.9%	—	88.5%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	54.0%	96.5%	30.7%	8.4%	85.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	55.6%	65.0%	58.3%	—	85.3%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.4%	66.9%	97.9%	86.2%	34.5%	90.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	50.0%	99.2%	87.2%	—	94.4%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	39.1%	96.3%	75.0%	31.7%	89.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	56.6%	77.2%	61.4%	—	78.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	89.2°F	5.5°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	89.3°F	6.1°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	81.9°F	5.0°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
ICON	72%	84.2°F	9.8°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	79.4°F	6.7°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	78.4°F	4.4°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260917-TMAX-GE79
Opened Sep 10 · 07:40 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 79°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗